An­a­lysts as­sess the dam­age — and next steps — af­ter Re­gen­eron/Sanofi get slammed in court

A fed­er­al judge’s de­ci­sion to or­der Re­gen­eron and Sanofi to pull their PC­SK9 drug Pralu­ent from the mar­ket man­aged to stun some of the most griz­zled ob­servers of the biotech world.

These patent dis­putes are not at all un­usu­al and are al­most al­ways set­tled with a share of the roy­al­ties when there’s a case to be made. And the court ac­knowl­edged that cre­at­ing a mo­nop­oly here was not in the pub­lic’s best in­ter­est. But the judge came down square­ly for Am­gen, say­ing:

(P)lain­tiffs have demon­strat­ed ir­repara­ble harm, as well as the in­ad­e­qua­cy of mon­ey dam­ages.

In­vestors clear­ly didn’t like the sound of any of this. Re­gen­eron’s shares $REGN dropped 7% — about $3 bil­lion in mar­ket cap — and Sanofi saw its stock slide 3%, about the same in mar­ket cap. Am­gen’s stock, mean­while, jumped 4.5%.

The first re­sponse, which every­one an­tic­i­pat­ed, was word from Re­gen­eron/Sanofi that the part­ners would ap­peal the de­ci­sion. But the very re­al pos­si­bil­i­ty ex­ists that an ap­peals court may not be quick to over­turn a rul­ing that came af­ter Re­gen­eron/Sanofi’s los­ing ar­gu­ment was flat­tened by the court. And the pos­si­bil­i­ty that Am­gen will pre­vail here got some top an­a­lysts think­ing over­time about the im­pli­ca­tions and pos­si­ble out­comes. We’ve gath­ered a few be­low.

Ge­of­frey Porges, Leerink

Sales of these new cho­les­terol drugs have not been im­pres­sive. But de­spite the slow take­off, a num­ber of an­a­lysts still be­lieve that these drugs will grad­u­al­ly build up a mar­ket worth bil­lions. Ge­of­frey Porges at Leerink crunched the num­bers if Am­gen’s win sticks:

As­sum­ing that AMGN cap­tures the ma­jor­i­ty of the fu­ture ~$2bn US Pralu­ent sales and main­tains a sim­i­lar mar­gin struc­ture with these in­cre­men­tal sales, our DCF val­ue for AMGN in­creas­es by $13, or 8%. This rep­re­sents a cash flow in­crease of $600mm in 2020E grow­ing to a $950mm ben­e­fit in 2025E, which AMGN could use for con­tin­ued div­i­dend growth, share buy­backs, or fu­ture ac­qui­si­tions.

Bri­an Sko­r­ney, Baird an­a­lyst

Bri­an Sko­r­ney at Baird be­lieves a roy­al­ty deal is the most like­ly out­come. He writes:

Though the rul­ing does in­di­cate that if Sanofi/Re­gen­eron do not file to ap­peal the de­ci­sion with­in 30 days, Pralu­ent will be pulled from the mar­ket, we doubt that will be the re­al­i­ty in the long run. The U.S. Court sys­tem is clear­ly cre­at­ed to in­still com­pe­ti­tion, not cre­ate mo­nop­o­lies. The Judge’s opin­ion clear­ly notes that “the pub­lic gen­er­al­ly is bet­ter served by hav­ing a choice of avail­able treat­ments. There­fore, the court finds it­self be­tween a rock and a hard place…tak­ing an in­de­pen­dent­ly de­vel­oped, help­ful drug off the mar­ket does not ben­e­fit the pub­lic.” The Judge al­so clear­ly hopes fur­ther pro­ceed­ings with “en­cour­age the par­ties to each an ap­pro­pri­ate busi­ness res­o­lu­tion.” As a re­sult, we think a hefty set­tle­ment is like­ly, pos­si­bly to the tune of 20%+ roy­al­ties to Am­gen. As a re­sult, we are rais­ing our price tar­get to $165.

If it does go to an ap­peals court, Biren Amin at Jef­feries doesn’t like the odds for Sanofi/Re­gen­eron.

Re­call in Ju­ly, we wrote about AMGN’s fil­ing an ap­peal case WBIP v. Kohler in­volv­ing low-emis­sion house­boat gen­er­a­tors in which the Ap­peals Court va­cat­ed the judg­ment of the Dis­trict Court deny­ing WBIP a per­ma­nent in­junc­tion. In this case, the Dis­trict Court felt that a PI would de­prive the con­sum­ing pub­lic “a po­ten­tial­ly life-sav­ing prod­uct.” The Ap­peals Court ar­gued that the pub­lic in­ter­est ar­gu­ment alone was not suf­fi­cient to de­ny a PI for a life-sav­ing good and specif­i­cal­ly cit­ed phar­ma­ceu­ti­cal drugs as an ex­am­ple in its rul­ing. If the Ap­peals Court is con­sis­tent with the WBIP v. Kohler rul­ing, it would mean a low like­li­hood that an ap­peal will be grant­ed.

 

Im­ple­ment­ing re­silience in the clin­i­cal tri­al sup­ply chain

Since January 2020, the clinical trials ecosystem has quickly evolved to manage roadblocks impeding clinical trial integrity, and patient care and safety amid a global pandemic. Closed borders, reduced air traffic and delayed or canceled flights disrupted global distribution, revealing how flexible logistics and supply chains can secure the timely delivery of clinical drug products and therapies to sites and patients.

In fi­nal days at Mer­ck, Roger Perl­mut­ter bets big on a lit­tle-known Covid-19 treat­ment

Roger Perlmutter is spending his last days at Merck, well, spending.

Two weeks after snapping up the antibody-drug conjugate biotech VelosBio for $2.75 billion, Merck announced today that it had purchased OncoImmune and its experimental Covid-19 drug for $425 million. The drug, known as CD24Fc, appeared to reduce the risk of respiratory failure or death in severe Covid-19 patients by 50% in a 203-person Phase III trial, OncoImmune said in September.

Endpoints News

Keep reading Endpoints with a free subscription

Unlock this story instantly and join 94,100+ biopharma pros reading Endpoints daily — and it's free.

Pascal Soriot (AP Images)

UP­DAT­ED: As­traZeneca, Ox­ford on the de­fen­sive as skep­tics dis­miss 70% av­er­age ef­fi­ca­cy for Covid-19 vac­cine

On the third straight Monday that the world wakes up to positive vaccine news, AstraZeneca and Oxford are declaring a new Phase III milestone in the fight against the pandemic. Not everyone is convinced they will play a big part, though.

With an average efficacy of 70%, the headline number struck analysts as less impressive than the 95% and 94.5% protection that Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have boasted in the past two weeks, respectively. But the British partners say they have several other bright spots going for their candidate. One of the two dosing regimens tested in Phase III showed a better profile, bringing efficacy up to 90%; the adenovirus vector-based vaccine requires minimal refrigeration, which may mean easier distribution; and AstraZeneca has pledged to sell it at a fraction of the price that the other two vaccine developers are charging.

Endpoints News

Keep reading Endpoints with a free subscription

Unlock this story instantly and join 94,100+ biopharma pros reading Endpoints daily — and it's free.

John Maraganore, Alnylam CEO (Scott Eisen/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Al­ny­lam gets the green light from the FDA for drug #3 — and CEO John Maraganore is ready to roll

Score another early win at the FDA for Alnylam.

The FDA put out word today that the agency has approved its third drug, lumasiran, for primary hyperoxaluria type 1, better known as PH1. The news comes just 4 days after the European Commission took the lead in offering a green light.

An ultra rare genetic condition, Alnylam CEO John Maraganore says there are only some 1,000 to 1,700 patients in the US and Europe at any particular point. The patients, mostly kids, suffer from an overproduction of oxalate in the liver that spurs the development of kidney stones, right through to end stage kidney disease.

Endpoints News

Keep reading Endpoints with a free subscription

Unlock this story instantly and join 94,100+ biopharma pros reading Endpoints daily — and it's free.

Bob Nelsen (Photo by Michael Kovac/Getty Images)

Bob Nelsen rais­es $800M and re­cruits a star-stud­ded board to build the 'Fox­con­n' of biotech

Bob Nelsen spent his pandemic spring in his Seattle home, talking on the phone with Luciana Borio, the scientist who used to run pandemic preparedness on the National Security Council, and fuming with her about the dire state of American manufacturing.

Companies were rushing to develop vaccines and antibodies for the new virus, but even if they succeeded, there was no immediate supply chain or infrastructure to mass-produce them in a way that could make a dent in the outbreak.

Endpoints News

Keep reading Endpoints with a free subscription

Unlock this story instantly and join 94,100+ biopharma pros reading Endpoints daily — and it's free.

Carl Hansen, AbCellera CEO (University of British Columbia)

From a pair of Air Jor­dans to a $200M-plus IPO, Carl Hansen is craft­ing an overnight R&D for­tune fu­eled by Covid-19

Back in the summer of 2019, Carl Hansen left his post as a professor at the University of British Columbia to go full time as the CEO at a low-profile antibody shop he had founded called AbCellera.

As biotech CEOs go, even after a fundraise Hansen wasn’t paid a whole heck of a lot. He ended up earning right at $250,000 for the year. His compensation package included a loan — which he later paid back — and a pair of Air Jordan tennis shoes. His newly-hired CFO, Andrew Booth, got a sweeter pay packet than that — which included his own pair of Air Jordans.

Endpoints Premium

Premium subscription required

Unlock this article along with other benefits by subscribing to one of our paid plans.

Leonard Schleifer, Regeneron CEO (Andrew Harnik/AP)

Trail­ing Eli Lil­ly by 12 days, Re­gen­eron gets the FDA OK for their Covid-19 an­ti­body cock­tail

A month and a half after becoming the experimental treatment of choice for a newly diagnosed president, Regeneron’s antibody cocktail has received emergency use authorization from the FDA. It will be used to treat non-hospitalized Covid-19 patients who are at high-risk of progressing.

Although the Rgeneron drug is not the first antibody treatment authorized by the FDA, the news comes as a significant milestone for a company and a treatment scientists have watched closely since the outbreak began.

Bahija Jallal (file photo)

TCR pi­o­neer Im­muno­core scores a first with a land­mark PhI­II snap­shot on over­all sur­vival for a rare melanoma

Bahija Jallal’s crew at TCR pioneer Immunocore says they have nailed down a promising set of pivotal data for their lead drug in a frontline setting for a solid tumor. And they are framing this early interim readout as the convincing snapshot they need to prove that their platform can deliver on a string of breakthrough therapies now in the clinic or planned for it.

In advance of the Monday announcement, Jallal and R&D chief David Berman took some time to walk me through the first round of Phase III data for their lead TCR designed to treat rare, frontline cases of metastatic uveal melanoma that come with a grim set of survival expectations.

Endpoints Premium

Premium subscription required

Unlock this article along with other benefits by subscribing to one of our paid plans.

Simeon George, SR One CEO (SR One)

Scoop: SR One crew com­pletes a com­pli­cat­ed spin­out from Glax­o­SmithK­line. And now they have a $500M fund to in­vest on their own

It’s taken close to 2 years, but Simeon George and his team at SR One have completed their spinout from GlaxoSmithKline, ending a saga as one of the longest running venture arms of Big Pharma as they go out on their own to forge the next chapter with a new and independent $500 million fund.

GSK is sticking with the spinout, this time as a minority investor — though a big one. And I’m told that the R&D group at GSK will remain involved in evaluating their new plays, helping with the scientific due diligence involved in scouting the world for new opportunities during a period of explosive growth in biotech investing.

Endpoints Premium

Premium subscription required

Unlock this article along with other benefits by subscribing to one of our paid plans.