Eli Lilly to double its manufacturing capacity for Mounjaro as it faces financial headwinds going into 2023 — report
Eli Lilly is facing several financial headwinds going into next year, spurred by the drying up of Covid-19 antibody sales and supply constraints, according to a report from SVB Securities by three of its analysts who visited Eli Lilly’s headquarters in Indianapolis last week.
An anticipated “stepdown” in Covid-19 antibody sales, after about $2 billion in recent sales, due to a lack of protection against the newer variants, as well as other speedbumps like Alimta generics, pressure from inflation and incremental costs for manufacturing were cited as potential headwinds.
Potential tailwinds for the pharma include the Type 2 diabetes drug Mounjaro, which is not expected to have “payer access levels” comparable to Trulicity until later next year.
On the subject of Mounjaro, which clinched an OK in May, the pharma is expected to double the manufacturing capacity for the drug by the end of 2023. Some production for Mounjaro is expected to come online before then. However, Lilly did not disclose to SVB how Mounjaro’s demand compares with existing manufacturing capacity.
Lilly did state to SVB that its ability to meet demand will depend on if it can resolve supply constraints of Wegovy and Ozempic, with the FDA potentially approving some production lines at its North Carolina facility throughout 2023.
The pharma has been making serious investments into manufacturing, especially in Indiana, with $2.1 billion being invested into two new manufacturing sites at Indiana’s LEAP Lebanon Innovation and Research District in Boone County, northwest of Lilly’s headquarters in Indianapolis. The two new facilities will expand Lilly’s manufacturing network for active ingredients and new therapeutic modalities, including genetic medicines.
On the data front, the company’s management is remaining “hopeful” about donanemab’s likelihood of success against Alzheimer’s in the second quarter of 2023. However, with the lecanemab data from Biogen and Eisai, which are expected to be seen in full at CTAD on Nov. 29, SVB stated that “Lilly is interested in seeing details such as stratification of patient results by disease severity (mild cognitive impairment vs. mild Alzheimer’s disease) and biomarkers (APOE4 status). Lilly is hoping that patients who have the milder disease will experience a greater slowing of cognitive decline – because it would support early treatment to slow disease progression.”
