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Eli Lilly touts MACE win for diabetes blockbuster Trulicity — a ‘nice positive’

Eli Lilly $LLY is boasting about a big win for its blockbuster diabetes drug Trulicity, saying their drug produced “compelling” evidence of its ability to guard against cardio events.

We don’t have the data yet, but the pharma giant is saying it’s clear that Trulicity delivers in preventing initial or secondary major cardio events like heart attacks. And it did it in a study with only a minority of at-risk patients, which will perhaps help distinguish it from the crowd of GLP-1 drugs now on the market, which have their own MACE data to tout.

The outcomes, though, may not make any difference in the drug’s potential, with a peak sales estimate of $5 billion. Evercore ISI’s Umer Raffat was quick to note that Lilly’s recent success with a Phase II GIP/GLP study for LY3298176 has changed the focus to next-gen drugs. And he’s left wondering how the hard data will play out once they’re on the table. Still, he adds:

“(T)his is a nice +ve for stock and sentiment.” Next up for Raffat: looming data for Lilly’s PD-1/IL-10 drug.

Credit Suisse also saw the upside, noting:

This is clearly positive news and should ease concerns about Trulicity’s ability to compete in the rapidly-growing GLP-1 market.

Lilly’ stock jumped about 3% in pre-market trading today.

Hertzel Gerstein

“The REWIND study was ambitious, assessing whether Trulicity could protect people with type 2 diabetes from experiencing an initial cardiovascular event, and prevent future events in those who have established cardiovascular disease,” said Hertzel Gerstein, professor of medicine and deputy director of the Population Health Institute at McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences. “The MACE reduction demonstrated by Trulicity, across a broad range of people with type 2 diabetes, is compelling and we look forward to analyzing and reporting all of the data.”


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