In­vestors — and As­traZeneca CEO Pas­cal So­ri­ot — are get­ting a tad ner­vous as MYS­TIC da­ta loom

As­traZeneca is get­ting close to see­ing how the dice stop rolling on its all-im­por­tant MYS­TIC tri­al, and the CEO and a whole lot of in­vestors are clear­ly start­ing to fret over the bot­tom line.

Reuters is re­port­ing this week that in­vestors have be­gun to take de­fen­sive po­si­tions on the stock in the op­tions mar­ket. And some are wor­ried that they re­al­ly won’t know what As­traZeneca’s po­si­tion in the lung can­cer mar­ket will be un­til they see all the hard da­ta from Phase III.

What is cer­tain, though, is that the mar­ket sees this as a ma­jor turn­ing point for the phar­ma gi­ant, which has put a spot­light on the PD-L1/CT­LA-4 com­bo of Imfinzi (dur­val­um­ab) and treme­li­mum­ab as its shot at im­muno-on­col­o­gy glo­ry. And that’s how As­traZeneca want­ed it, at least at the be­gin­ning of this year. This tri­al, af­ter all, rep­re­sents their be­lief that the right com­bo can pole vault them in­to a mar­ket lead­ing po­si­tion in the field, even though it was fifth to mar­ket.

So CEO Pas­cal So­ri­ot must be hap­py that the mo­ment of truth is about to ar­rive.

Or not.

“What peo­ple miss is every­thing else we’ve got,” So­ri­ot told The Fi­nan­cial Times ear­li­er this month in an ar­ti­cle that fo­cused square­ly on the much an­tic­i­pat­ed MYS­TIC da­ta, due right around … now.

“What I’m hop­ing is that when we’re on the oth­er side of MYS­TIC, peo­ple will start look­ing at the rest.”

That would be true if the tri­al is pos­i­tive and As­traZeneca can cap­i­tal­ize on it, con­tin­u­ing its re­cent roll in the field and blunt­ing Mer­ck’s blitzkrieg in im­muno-on­col­o­gy with the ap­proval of a front­line com­bi­na­tion of Keytru­da and chemo. If the study fails, though, As­traZeneca in­vestors will un­hap­pi­ly re­call So­ri­ot’s in­sis­tence that the com­pa­ny can boost sales to $45 bil­lion by 2023 – a claim made when Pfiz­er came knock­ing with its buy­out of­fer.

Last year, As­traZeneca earned $23 bil­lion, mak­ing Imfinzi and MYS­TIC cen­tral to its mis­sion to get out of the trough. The mar­ket play­ers are look­ing for a big swing up or down, once they get a han­dle on the re­sults.

And down – es­pe­cial­ly if it wipes out the phar­ma gi­ant’s sub­stan­tial gains – is not where As­traZeneca wants to be in the mid­dle of what it’s billing as a tran­si­tion year.

Im­age: Pas­cal So­ri­ot pos­es for a pho­to­graph out­side the Hous­es of Com­mons / Bloomberg, Get­ty

It’s fi­nal­ly over: Bio­gen, Ei­sai scrap big Alzheimer’s PhI­I­Is af­ter a pre­dictable BACE cat­a­stro­phe rais­es safe­ty fears

Months after analysts and investors called on Biogen and Eisai to scrap their BACE drug for Alzheimer’s and move on in the wake of a string of late-stage failures and rising safety fears, the partners have called it quits. And they said they were dropping the drug — elenbecestat — after the independent monitoring board raised concerns about…safety.

We don’t know exactly what researchers found in this latest catastrophe, but the companies noted in their release that investigators had determined that the drug was flunking the risk/benefit analysis.

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It's not per­fect, but it's a good start: FDA pan­elists large­ly en­dorse Aim­mune's peanut al­ler­gy ther­a­py

Two days after a fairly benign review from FDA staff, an independent panel of experts largely endorsed the efficacy and safety of Aimmune’s peanut allergy therapy, laying the groundwork for approval with a risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS).

Traditionally, peanut allergies are managed by avoidance, but the threat of accidental exposure cannot be nullified. Some allergists have devised a way to dose patients off-label with peanut protein derived from supermarket products to wean them off their allergies. But the idea behind Aimmune’s product was to standardize the peanut protein, and track the process of desensitization — so when accidental exposure in the real world invariably occurs, patients are less likely to experience a life-threatening allergic reaction.

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Rit­ter bombs fi­nal PhI­II for sole lac­tose in­tol­er­ance drug — shares plum­met

More than two years ago Ritter Pharmaceuticals managed to find enough silver lining in its Phase IIb/III study — after missing the top-line mark — to propel its lactose intolerance toward a confirmatory trial. But as it turned out, the enthusiasm only set the biotech and its investors up to be sorely disappointed.

This time around there’s little left to salvage. Not only did RP-G28 fail to beat placebo in reducing lactose intolerance symptoms, patients in the treatment group actually averaged a smaller improvement. On a composite score measuring symptoms like abdominal pain, cramping, bloating and gas, patients given the drug had a mean reduction of 3.159 while the placebo cohort saw a 3.420 drop on average (one-sided p-value = 0.0106).

Ear­ly snap­shot of Ad­verum's eye gene ther­a­py sparks con­cern about vi­sion loss

An early-stage update on Adverum Biotechnologies’ intravitreal gene therapy has triggered investor concern, after patients with wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) saw their vision deteriorate, despite signs that the treatment is improving retinal anatomy.

Adverum, on Wednesday, unveiled 24-week data from the OPTIC trial of its experimental therapy, ADVM-022, in six patients who have been administered with one dose of the therapy. On average, patients in the trial had severe disease with an average of 6.2 anti-VEGF injections in the eight months prior to screening and an average annualized injection frequency of 9.3 injections.

Alex Ar­faei trades his an­a­lyst's post for a new role as biotech VC; Sanofi vet heads to Vi­for

Too often, Alex Arfaei arrived too late. 

An analyst at BMO Capital Markets, he’d meet with biotech or pharmaceutical heads for their IPO or secondary funding and his brain, trained on a biology degree and six years at Merck and Endo, would spring with questions: Why this biomarker? Why this design? Why not this endpoint? Not that he could do anything about it. These execs were coming for clinical money; their decisions had been made and finalized long ago.

Lisa M. DeAngelis, MSKCC

MSK picks brain can­cer ex­pert Lisa DeAn­ge­lis as its next CMO — fol­low­ing José Basel­ga’s con­tro­ver­sial ex­it

It’s official. Memorial Sloan Kettering has picked a brain cancer expert as its new physician-in-chief and CMO, replacing José Baselga, who left under a cloud after being singled out by The New York Times and ProPublica for failing to properly air his lucrative industry ties.

His replacement, who now will be in charge of MSK’s cutting-edge research work as well as the cancer care delivered by hundreds of practitioners, is Lisa M. DeAngelis. DeAngelis had been chair of the neurology department and co-founder of MSK’s brain tumor center and was moved in to the acting CMO role in the wake of Baselga’s departure.

Penn team adapts CAR-T tech, reengi­neer­ing mouse cells to treat car­diac fi­bro­sis

After establishing itself as one of the pioneer research centers in the world for CAR-T cancer therapies, creating new attack vehicles to eradicate cancer cells, a team at Penn Medicine has begun the tricky transition of using the basic technology for heart repair work.

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Tal Zaks. Moderna

The mR­NA uni­corn Mod­er­na has more ear­ly-stage hu­man da­ta it wants to show off — reach­ing new peaks in prov­ing the po­ten­tial

The whole messenger RNA field has attracted billions of dollars in public and private investor cash gambled on the prospect of getting in on the ground floor. And this morning Boston-based Moderna, one of the leaders in the field, wants to show off a few more of the cards it has to play to prove to you that they’re really in the game.

The whole hand, of course, has yet to be dealt. And there’s no telling who gets to walk with a share of the pot. But any cards on display at this point — especially after being accused of keeping its deck under lock and key — will attract plenty of attention from some very wary, and wired, observers.

“In terms of the complexity and unmet need,” says Tal Zaks, the chief medical officer, “this is peak for what we’ve accomplished.”

Moderna has two Phase I studies it wants to talk about now.

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Sanofi takes a $260M hit to ex­tri­cate it­self from a dis­as­trous al­liance with Lex­i­con

Sanofi spent $300 million in cash to get into a $1.7 billion alliance with Lexicon on their SGLT1/2 diabetes drug sotagliflozin. And now that the drug has been spurned by the FDA after burning through a program that provided mixed late-stage data and a late shot at a last-place finish, the French pharma giant is forking over another $260 million to get out of the deal.

Sanofi’s unhappiness was already apparent when the company — now under new CEO Paul Hudson — posted a statement back in July that they were dropping the deal. But it wasn’t that simple. 

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