The flip side of the hot IPO mar­ket? A chill could trig­ger a sud­den cash crunch in biotech, fol­lowed by more deals

Over the last 5 years biotech IPOs and fol­low-ons have raised a tsuna­mi of cash to­tal­ing some $128 bil­lion, ac­cord­ing to a new es­ti­mate out from Leerink. And these new­ly coined pub­lic play­ers have been spend­ing mon­ey fast.

Ge­of­frey Porges, Leerink

Ge­of­frey Porges says that by the end of Q3 $85 bil­lion was burned in pur­suit of their goals. And with $43 bil­lion still on the books, he’s rais­ing a red flag for the cash crunch that may be await­ing a large seg­ment of these drug de­vel­op­ment up­starts as ear­ly as 2019.

Look­ing at the 222 biotechs that re­main in the group af­ter ac­count­ing for buy­outs and fail­ures, Porges found that they were col­lec­tive­ly spend­ing $3.5 bil­lion a quar­ter at last look. That burn rate could ex­tend out a re­as­sur­ing­ly long way: 3.5 years to be ex­act. But 3 out of 10 of these com­pa­nies have less than 18 months of cash — a fig­ure that is like­ly to hit 50% a year from now.

That could prove a prob­lem af­ter the new pub­lic com­pa­nies in the in­dus­try de­vel­oped a $14 bil­lion per year ap­petite for spend­ing.

With­out a hot mar­ket to turn to for more mon­ey, Porges is look­ing for a re­turn to al­ter­na­tive sources of cash — which may help heat up the deal mar­ket for ma­jor play­ers who have been wait­ing for val­u­a­tions to cool down.

Writes Porges:

By this time next year, the fi­nanc­ing needs of these com­pa­nies will be acute, and just keep­ing their cur­rent de­vel­op­ment plans fund­ed will re­quire ad­di­tion­al cap­i­tal of $3-4bn per quar­ter. With cap­i­tal mar­kets now ef­fec­tive­ly closed to new is­sues, in­vestors are like­ly to find com­pa­nies in the sec­tor in­creas­ing­ly ner­vous about cap­i­tal dur­ing 2019. Oth­er less tra­di­tion­al sources of cap­i­tal, in­clud­ing re­struc­tur­ing, as­set sales, roy­al­ty fi­nanc­ing and con­vert­ible debt, will be much more ac­tive­ly con­sid­ered dur­ing the com­ing year, as­sum­ing cap­i­tal mar­kets re­main in their cur­rent volatile state.

Of course, noth­ing keeps go­ing up for­ev­er. The best of these com­pa­nies will start prepar­ing for lean­er days, be­fore the cash runs low.

Slight­ly less than half of Porges’ co­hort of com­pa­nies has less than 2 years of cash on hand now, with 61% hold­ing enough mon­ey for less than 10 quar­ters and 30% at 3 years-plus. 

This means that with­out fur­ther cap­i­tal, and as­sum­ing con­stant, not grow­ing ex­pens­es, then by the end of Q3 2019, or one year from now, 45% of these com­pa­nies will have on­ly one year of cash, and ~60% will have on­ly 18 months of cash avail­able.

Brian Kaspar. AveXis via Twitter

AveX­is sci­en­tif­ic founder fires back at No­var­tis CEO Vas Narasimhan, 'cat­e­gor­i­cal­ly de­nies any wrong­do­ing'

Brian Kaspar’s head was among the first to roll at Novartis after company execs became aware of the fact that manipulated data had been included in its application for Zolgensma, now the world’s most expensive therapy.

But in his first public response, the scientific founder at AveXis — acquired by Novartis for $8.7 billion — is firing back. And he says that not only was he not involved in any wrongdoing, he’s ready to defend his name as needed.

I reached out to Brian Kaspar after Novartis put out word that he and his brother Allen had been axed in mid-May, two months after the company became aware of the allegations related to manipulated data. His response came back through his attorneys.

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We­bi­nar: Re­al World End­points — the brave new world com­ing in build­ing fran­chise ther­a­pies

Several biopharma companies have been working on expanding drug labels through the use of real world endpoints, combing through the data to find evidence of a drug’s efficacy for particular indications. But we’ve just begun. Real World Evidence is becoming an important part of every clinical development plan, in the soup-through-nuts approach used in building franchises.

I’ve recruited a panel of 3 top experts in the field — the first in a series of premium webinars — to look at the practical realities governing what can be done today, and where this is headed over the next few years, at the prodding of the FDA.

ZHEN SU — Merck Serono’s Senior Vice President and Global Head of Oncology

ELLIOTT LEVY — Amgen’s Senior Vice President of Global Development

CHRIS BOSHOFF — Pfizer Oncology’s Chief Development Officer

A premium subscription to Endpoints News is required to attend this webinar. Please upgrade to either an Insider or Enterprise plan for access. Already have Endpoints Premium? Please sign-in below. You can contact our Subscriptions team at with any issues.

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Bob Smith, Pfizer

Pfiz­er is mak­ing a $500M state­ment to­day: Here’s how you be­come a lead play­er in the boom­ing gene ther­a­py sec­tor

Three years ago, Pfizer anted up $150 million in cash to buy Bamboo Therapeutics in Chapel Hill, NC as it cautiously stuck a toe in the small gene therapy pool of research and development.

Company execs followed up a year later with a $100 million expansion of the manufacturing operations they picked up in that deal for the UNC spinout, which came with $495 million in milestones.

And now they’re really going for it.

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Video: Putting the AI in R&D — with Badhri Srini­vasan, Tony Wood, Rosana Kapeller, Hugo Ceule­mans, Saurabh Sa­ha and Shoibal Dat­ta

During BIO this year, I had a chance to moderate a panel among some of the top tech experts in biopharma on their real-world use of artificial intelligence in R&D. There’s been a lot said about the potential of AI, but I wanted to explore more about what some of the larger players are actually doing with this technology today, and how they see it advancing in the future. It was a fascinating exchange, which you can see here. The transcript has been edited for brevity and clarity. — John Carroll

UP­DAT­ED: As­traZeneca’s Imfinzi/treme com­bo strikes out — again — in lung can­cer. Is it time for last rites?

AstraZeneca bet big on the future of their PD-L1 Imfinzi combined with the experimental CTLA-4 drug tremelimumab. But once again it’s gone down to defeat in a major Phase III study — while adding damage to the theory involving targeting cancer with a high tumor mutational burden.

Early Wednesday the pharma giant announced that their NEPTUNE study had failed, with the combination unable to beat standard chemo at overall survival in high TMB cases of advanced non-small cell lung cancer. We won’t get hard data until later in the year, but the drumbeat of failures will call into question what — if any — future this combination can have left.

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SEC calls out lit­tle Ther­a­peu­tic­sMD for its in­sid­er con­tacts with an­a­lysts to boost share price, then halt rout

Back in May 2017, following an FDA rejection, TherapeuticsMD saw its share price plummet to the lowest levels in two years. The little Florida biotech eventually found its way back to the good side of regulators, scoring a curious OK a year later for its therapy preventing vaginal pain during sex. But the SEC is now accusing it of selectively disclosing nonpublic information in attempts to manipulate its stock.

In two instances in June and July of 2017, TherapeuticsMD allegedly violated the Regulation Fair Disclosure rule by sharing material information with certain sell-side analysts and not the public, resulting in a more favorable stock move than otherwise would be expected.

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Therapists Marcela Ot'alora and Bruce Poulter are trained to conduct MDMA-assisted psychotherapy. In this reenactment, they demonstrate how they help guide and watch over a patient who is revisiting traumatic memories while under the influence of MDMA. (Photo: Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies)

MD­MA, now in Phase III, shows promise as a PTSD treat­ment

The first time Lori Tipton tried MDMA, she was skeptical it would make a difference.

“I really was, at the beginning, very nervous,” Tipton said.

MDMA is the main ingredient in the club drug known as ecstasy or molly. But Tipton wasn’t taking pills sold on the street to get high. She was trying to treat her post-traumatic stress disorder by participating in a clinical trial.

After taking a dose of pure MDMA, Tipton lay in a quiet room with two specially trained psychotherapists. They sat next to her as she recalled some of her deepest traumas, such as discovering her mother’s body after Tipton’s mother killed two people and then herself in a murder-suicide.

Ted Ashburn. Oncorus

Cowen, Per­cep­tive lead $79.5M Se­ries B for 's­tand­out' biotech shep­herd­ing on­colyt­ic virus to clin­ic

As several Big Pharma players secure biotech partners in the oncolytic virus space for new immuno-oncology combos, Cowen and Perceptive Advisors have come out with their own bet on a startup that promises to shine.

The marquee investors are joining MPM, Deerfield, Celgene, Astellas, Arkin Bio Ventures and UBS Oncology Impact Fund in backing the drug developer, Oncorus, which will now deploy the $79.5 million in Series B cash toward clinical development of its lead program. Other new investors include Surveyor Capital, Sphera Funds, IMM Investment, QUAD Investment Management, UTC Investment, SV Investment Corp and Shinhan Investment-Private Equity, the last five of which are Korean-based funds.

Fu­til­i­ty analy­sis au­gurs de­feat in piv­otal tri­al test­ing of Nu­Cana's lead drug in metasta­t­ic pan­cre­at­ic can­cer

Nearly two years after making its public debut, UK-based NuCana’s mission to make chemotherapies more potent and safer was dealt a blow, after a pivotal study testing its lead experimental drug halted enrollment in a hard-to-treat advanced form of cancer, following a futility analysis.

The drug, Acelarin, is being evaluated for use in metastatic pancreatic cancer patients who were not considered suitable for combination chemotherapy. In the late-stage ACELARATE study — which compared the experimental drug against the chemotherapy gemcitabine — 200 patients had been enrolled by the sponsor, Clatterbridge Cancer Centre, before an analysis from an independent safety and data monitoring panel suggested the study’s main goal would not be met.