The list of the 11 block­busters-to-be in line for a 2020 launch high­light agony and ec­sta­sy of drug R&D

For all the talk about un­met med­ical need and pa­tients first and so on, the key cri­te­ria in­vestors watch for any new drug in the pipelines is peak sales pro­jec­tion. Are you go­ing to hit the block­buster mark, at $1 bil­lion-plus, or are you go­ing to be an al­so-ran in the sales de­part­ment?

Of course, an­a­lysts’ peak sales pro­jec­tions by them­selves are of lim­it­ed val­ue in many cas­es. When the PC­SK9 drugs start­ed ar­riv­ing 5 years ago, Repatha was billed as a $2.5 bil­lion peak earn­er. They’re nowhere near that, with new com­pe­ti­tion threat­en­ing cur­rent lev­els. And if Bio­gen’s con­tro­ver­sial Alzheimer’s drug ad­u­canum­ab (sub­mis­sion planned but not on the list) is ap­proved, per chance, will pay­ers cov­er it?

Maybe not. And then those $10 bil­lion in peak sales as­sump­tions would go straight down the drain.

But, an­a­lysts are an­a­lysts, and peak sales pro­jec­tions have to be fac­tored in when as­sess­ing the top ex­per­i­men­tal drugs up for a launch in the year ahead.

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