If you thought Pfiz­er was rak­ing it in with megablock­buster sales of its BioN­Tech-part­nered Covid-19 vac­cine — last pro­ject­ed at $36 bil­lion for 2021 — think again.

As the phar­ma gi­ant sends off its EUA sub­mis­sion for its an­tivi­ral pill to the FDA, the Wash­ing­ton Post, New York Times and oth­ers are re­port­ing that the US gov­ern­ment is plan­ning a $5 bil­lion con­tract to pur­chase 10 mil­lion cours­es of the treat­ment, dubbed Paxlovid.

Bar­clay’s an­a­lysts crunched the num­bers. Their con­clu­sion: That could mean an­oth­er $15 bil­lion to $25 bil­lion in 2022 rev­enue for Pfiz­er if all goes well.

Oral drugs that pa­tients can take at home soon af­ter they start see­ing symp­toms have been hailed as a ma­jor break­through for the pan­dem­ic. Mer­ck was the first to de­liv­er pos­i­tive Phase III re­sults with mol­nupi­ravir, and Pfiz­er quick­ly fol­lowed by show­ing that Paxlovid cut the risk of Covid-re­lat­ed hos­pi­tal­iza­tion or death by 89% com­pared to place­bo.

Mer­ck has fore­cast about $7 bil­lion in mol­nupi­ravir sales through the end of next year.

The re­port­ed terms of Pfiz­er’s sup­ply deal, Bar­clays an­a­lysts wrote, im­ply greater vol­ume but low­er pric­ing than the con­tracts Mer­ck ne­go­ti­at­ed. Where­as mol­nupi­ravir was sold at about $700 per course, Paxlovid’s price is es­ti­mat­ed at $300 to $500 per course.

Be­sides, they added, “the US gov­ern­ment se­cured vol­umes more than 3x what it has al­ready se­cured for Mer­ck’s mol­nupi­ravir (10mn vs. 3.1mn).”

To get the $15-25 bil­lion num­ber, they made the as­sump­tion that 90% of dos­es are dis­trib­uted.

Both com­pa­nies have pledged to share their patents with gener­ic mak­ers and non­prof­its so that de­vel­op­ing coun­tries can ac­cess them at a much low­er cost.

For a look at all End­points News coro­n­avirus sto­ries, check out our spe­cial news chan­nel.

As Covid-19 drug and vaccine developers race to figure out which of their products might be hampered by the new variant, the CDC on Wednesday afternoon announced the first confirmed case of the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) in the US, found in San Francisco.

The unidentified individual was a traveler who returned from South Africa on Nov. 22, 2021, was fully vaccinated, and had mild symptoms that the CDC described as improving. All close contacts have been contacted and have tested negative, the centers said.

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On the hunt for a better AAV capsid for gene therapy, Eric Kelsic’s Dyno Therapeutics has set itself apart with its focus on machine learning to help speed discovery. Now, Japanese drugmaker Astellas — fresh off a slate of gene therapy burns — is taking a bet on Dyno as it looks to the future.

Astellas and Dyno will work together as part of an R&D pact to develop next-gen AAV vectors for gene therapy using Dyno’s CapsidMap platform directed at skeletal and cardiac muscle, the companies said Wednesday. Under the terms of the deal, Dyno will design AAV capsids for gene therapy, while Astellas will be responsible for conducting preclinical, clinical and commercialization activities for gene therapy product candidates using the capsids.

With little explanation for why Merck’s potential Covid-19 antiviral was less effective in reducing Covid hospitalizations and deaths in a full analysis of a Phase III trial versus an interim look, the FDA’s antimicrobial drugs advisory committee on Tuesday voted 13-10 in favor of the pill’s benefits outweighing the risks for adults within 5 days of developing Covid symptoms.

Molnupiravir will likely be authorized by FDA in the coming days for adults with mild or moderate Covid-19. While Pfizer’s antiviral may prove to be more effective, Merck’s pill will be another weapon in the armamentarium of Covid-19 treatments for countries around the world, adding to the mAb treatments already in use in the outpatient space from Regeneron, Eli Lilly and Vir/GlaxoSmithKline.