How Novartis assesses a drug's probability of success prior to the pivotal trial
Transitioning a developing compound from early phase clinical trials to a pivotal trial(s) can be a make-or-break decision for a small- or medium-sized pharma. And sometimes companies aren’t very good at making the right decision.
While many companies often rely on outdated ways to assess the probability of any given compound’s success in making that transition, and clearly some are better than others — an accompanying editorial explains how Pfizer’s “end to end” success is “almost twofold higher than the industry benchmark” — Novartis scientists recently published in the May issue of Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics its framework for assessing the probability of success at the end of a smaller Phase II trial, or prior to that pivotal trial.
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