Is the FTC about to force Roche to di­vest a key he­mo­phil­ia pro­gram be­fore green-light­ing Spark buy­out?

Mizuho Se­cu­ri­ties an­a­lyst Difei Yang has been con­sult­ing with the FTC ex­perts at Allen & Overy over Roche’s long-de­layed $4.3 bil­lion Spark Ther­a­peu­tics buy­out. And he’s in­creas­ing­ly sure that all the signs are point­ing to a clear de­mand from reg­u­la­tors that would force a di­vesti­ture on the he­mo­phil­ia A side of the pipeline.

The lat­est analy­sis cen­ters on the track record at the FTC when they is­sue a sec­ond re­quest for in­for­ma­tion, which is an ex­treme­ly rare event that hap­pens in 1 out of 50 M&A cas­es. Roche got their sec­ond re­quest in June. In those in­stances, the num­bers show that there’s an 80% chance that a di­vesti­ture de­mand is com­ing. And this one could be par­tic­u­lar­ly painful for Roche to ac­cept.

Unlock this article instantly by becoming a free subscriber.

You’ll get access to free articles each month, plus you can customize what newsletters get delivered to your inbox each week, including breaking news.

SIGN UP LOG IN BECOME A PREMIUM SUBSCRIBER