Is the FTC about to force Roche to di­vest a key he­mo­phil­ia pro­gram be­fore green-light­ing Spark buy­out?

Mizuho Se­cu­ri­ties an­a­lyst Difei Yang has been con­sult­ing with the FTC ex­perts at Allen & Overy over Roche’s long-de­layed $4.3 bil­lion Spark Ther­a­peu­tics buy­out. And he’s in­creas­ing­ly sure that all the signs are point­ing to a clear de­mand from reg­u­la­tors that would force a di­vesti­ture on the he­mo­phil­ia A side of the pipeline.

The lat­est analy­sis cen­ters on the track record at the FTC when they is­sue a sec­ond re­quest for in­for­ma­tion, which is an ex­treme­ly rare event that hap­pens in 1 out of 50 M&A cas­es. Roche got their sec­ond re­quest in June. In those in­stances, the num­bers show that there’s an 80% chance that a di­vesti­ture de­mand is com­ing. And this one could be par­tic­u­lar­ly painful for Roche to ac­cept.

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