Ker­ris­dale 2-0 this week: Bavar­i­an Nordic's can­cer vac­cine is a bust in PhI­II

An­oth­er can­cer vac­cine has bit­ten the dust.

Six long years af­ter start­ing their Phase III tri­al for the prostate can­cer vac­cine Prost­vac, an in­de­pen­dent mon­i­tor­ing com­mit­tee says it’s time to sim­ply scrap Bavar­i­an Nordic’s {$BA­VA.CO} study af­ter con­clud­ing it wasn’t work­ing at a fi­nal in­ter­im analy­sis stage.

In­vestors who had stuck with the Dan­ish biotech weren’t pleased. Its shares lost half their val­ue, and one an­a­lyst, Pe­ter Welford at Jef­feries, says the flop could read through to a fol­low up pro­gram. He wrote:

We note BA­VA al­so has CV-301 in Phase II for blad­der can­cer and en­ter­ing Phase Ib/II for lung can­cer (NSCLC) +Keytru­da, plus Phase II for urothe­lial car­ci­no­ma +Tecen­triq. CV-301 com­pris­es a sim­i­lar back­bone and TRI­COM co-stim­u­la­to­ry mol­e­cules to PROST­VAC with dif­fer­ent anti­gens. Hence, giv­en the sig­nif­i­cant set­back for PROST­VAC, we ex­pect the mar­ket to now more heav­i­ly dis­count CV-301, with our NPV c.DKK30/share (9%).

Paul Chap­lin, Bavar­i­an Nordic

Bris­tol-My­ers Squibb paid $60 mil­lion up front to li­cense the can­cer vac­cine, with $80 mil­lion lined up for the op­tion on Phase III da­ta, with hun­dreds of mil­lions in prospec­tive mile­stones.

That all just went poof.

The late-stage fail­ure fol­lows a short at­tack from Sahm Ad­ran­gi’s Ker­ris­dale Cap­i­tal, who called it two years ago as a se­ries of can­cer vac­cines like Stimu­vax fell short of the mark.

“The his­to­ry of ther­a­peu­tic can­cer vac­cines is two decades of un­mit­i­gat­ed fail­ure,” Ad­ran­gi wrote in 2015. “We ex­pect noth­ing dif­fer­ent from Bavar­i­an Nordic.”

The set­back al­so fol­lows mul­ti­ple de­lays, which Chap­lin had cheered as an in­di­ca­tion that tak­ing more time to reach the num­ber of events need­ed for the read­out was an in­di­ca­tion of suc­cess.

That the­o­ry, which has been used by North­west Bio and oth­ers, has been proven wrong time and again.

Ker­ris­dale Cap­i­tal has been proven right twice this week, with Sage’s ug­ly mis­fire on SRSE prov­ing that the drug was no bet­ter than a place­bo in get­ting a re­sponse. But in that case, be­ing right didn’t mean win­ning a cash re­ward, as Sage’s stock went up af­ter the Phase III fail­ure.

As far as the stock mar­ket is con­cerned now, these are spe­cial times, when in­vestor re­ac­tions can be marked­ly dif­fer­ent than the norm.

I asked Ad­ran­gi what he thought about the fail­ure. His re­sponse:

“Prost­vac’s fail­ure is what any ob­serv­er should have ex­pect­ed giv­en the un­ex­cep­tion­al ear­li­er stage treat­ment arm sur­vival. The vac­cine’s un­so­phis­ti­cat­ed de­sign was doomed for fail­ure — sim­ply ad­min­is­ter­ing tu­mor-as­so­ci­at­ed anti­gens and hop­ing for an ef­fec­tive im­mune re­sponse al­ways seemed to us a dead end.”
“We are ex­treme­ly dis­ap­point­ed for pa­tients that this study of Prost­vac as monother­a­py was not suc­cess­ful,” said Bavar­i­an Nordic CEO Paul Chap­lin. “While this is cer­tain­ly not the de­sired out­come, we re­main stead­fast be­liev­ers in the pow­er of com­bi­na­tion treat­ments, in­clud­ing im­munother­a­pies, to trans­form the fu­ture of can­cer ther­a­pies.”

UP­DAT­ED: In sur­prise switch, Bris­tol-My­ers is sell­ing off block­buster Ote­zla, promis­ing to com­plete Cel­gene ac­qui­si­tion — just lat­er

Apart from revealing its checkpoint inhibitor Opdivo blew a big liver cancer study on Monday, Bristol-Myers Squibb said its plans to swallow Celgene will require the sale of blockbuster psoriasis treatment Otezla to keep the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) at bay.

The announcement — which has potentially delayed the completion of the takeover to early 2020 — irked investors, triggering the New York-based drugmaker’s shares to tumble Monday morning in premarket trading.

Celgene’s Otezla, approved in 2014 for psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis, is a rising star. It generated global sales of $1.6 billion last year, up from the nearly $1.3 billion in 2017. Apart from the partial overlap of Bristol-Myers injectable Orencia, the company’s rival oral TYK2 psoriasis drug is in late-stage development, after the firm posted encouraging mid-stage data on the drug, BMS-986165, last fall. With Monday’s decision, it appears Bristol-Myers is favoring its experimental drug, and discounting Otezla’s future.

The move blindsided some analysts. Credit Suisse’s Vamil Divan noted just days ago:

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Novotech CEO Dr. John Moller

Novotech CRO Award­ed Frost & Sul­li­van Best Biotech CRO Asia-Pa­cif­ic 2019

Known in the in­dus­try as the Asia-Pa­cif­ic CRO, Novotech is now lead CRO ser­vices provider for the grow­ing num­ber of in­ter­na­tion­al biotechs se­lect­ing the re­gion for their stud­ies.

Re­flect­ing this Asia-Pa­cif­ic growth, Novotech staff num­bers are up 20% since De­cem­ber 2018 to 600 in-house clin­i­cal re­search peo­ple across a full range of ser­vices, across the re­gion.

Novotech’s ca­pa­bil­i­ties have been rec­og­nized by an­a­lysts like Frost & Sul­li­van, most re­cent­ly with the pres­ti­gious Asia-Pa­cif­ic CRO Biotech of the year award for best prac­tices in clin­i­cal re­search for biotechs for the fifth year. See oth­er awards here.

Fol­low­ing news of job cuts in Eu­ro­pean R&D ops, Sanofi con­firms it’s of­fer­ing US work­ers an 'ear­ly ex­it'

Ear­li­er in the week we learned that Sanofi was bring­ing out the bud­get ax to trim 466 R&D jobs in Eu­rope, re­tool­ing its ap­proach to car­dio as re­search chief John Reed beefed up their work in can­cer and gene ther­a­pies. And we’re end­ing the week with news that the phar­ma gi­ant has al­so been qui­et­ly re­duc­ing staff in the US, tar­get­ing hun­dreds of jobs as the com­pa­ny push­es vol­un­tary buy­outs with a fo­cus on R&D sup­port ser­vices.

Suf­fer­ing No­var­tis part­ner Cona­tus is pack­ing it in on NASH af­ter a se­ries of un­for­tu­nate tri­al events

The NASH par­ty is over at No­var­tis-backed Cona­tus. And this time they’re turn­ing off the lights.

More than 2 years af­ter No­var­tis sur­prised the biotech in­vest­ment com­mu­ni­ty with its $50 mil­lion up­front and promise of R&D sup­port to part­ner with the lit­tle biotech on NASH — ig­nit­ing a light­ning strike for the share price — Cona­tus $CNAT is back with the lat­est bit­ter tale to tell about em­ri­c­as­an, which once in­spired con­fi­dence at the phar­ma gi­ant.

Bet­ter than Am­bi­en? Min­er­va soars on PhI­Ib up­date on sel­torex­ant for in­som­nia

A month af­ter roil­ing in­vestors with what skep­tics dis­missed as cher­ry pick­ing of its de­pres­sion da­ta, Min­er­va is back with a clean slate of da­ta from its Phase IIb in­som­nia tri­al.

In a de­tailed up­date, the Waltham, MA-based biotech said sel­torex­ant (MIN-202) hit both the pri­ma­ry and sev­er­al sec­ondary end­points, ef­fec­tive­ly im­prov­ing sleep in­duc­tion and pro­long­ing sleep du­ra­tion. In­ves­ti­ga­tors made a point to note that the ef­fects were con­sis­tent across the adult and el­der­ly pop­u­la­tions, with the lat­ter more prone to the sleep dis­or­der.

Gene ther­a­py biotech sees its stock rock­et high­er on promis­ing re­sults for rare cas­es of but­ter­fly dis­ease

Shares of Krys­tal Biotech took off this morn­ing $KRYS af­ter the lit­tle biotech re­port­ed promis­ing re­sults from its gene ther­a­py to treat a rare skin dis­ease called epi­der­mol­y­sis bul­losa.

Fo­cus­ing on an up­date with 4 new pa­tients, re­searchers spot­light­ed the suc­cess of KB103 in clos­ing some stub­born wounds. Krys­tal says that of 4 re­cur­ring and 2 chron­ic skin wounds treat­ed with the gene ther­a­py, the KB103 group saw the clo­sure of 5. The 6th — a chron­ic wound, de­fined as a wound that had re­mained open for more than 12 weeks — was par­tial­ly closed. That brings the to­tal so far to 8 treat­ed wounds, with 7 clo­sures.

Ab­b­Vie gets a green light to re­sume re­cruit­ing pa­tients for one myelo­ma study — but Ven­clex­ta re­mains un­der a cloud

Three months af­ter reg­u­la­tors at the FDA forced Ab­b­Vie to halt en­rolling pa­tients in its tri­als of a com­bi­na­tion us­ing Ven­clex­ta (vene­to­clax) to treat drug-re­sis­tant cas­es of mul­ti­ple myelo­ma, the agency has green-light­ed the re­sump­tion of one of those stud­ies, while keep­ing the rest on the side­lines.

The CANO­VA (M13-494) study can now get back in busi­ness re­cruit­ing pa­tients to test the drug for a pop­u­la­tion that shares a par­tic­u­lar ge­net­ic bio­mark­er. To get that per­mis­sion, Ab­b­Vie — which is part­nered with Roche on this pro­gram — was forced to re­vise the pro­to­col, mak­ing un­spec­i­fied changes in­volv­ing risk mit­i­ga­tion mea­sures, pro­to­col-spec­i­fied guide­lines and an up­dat­ed fu­til­i­ty cri­te­ria.

Bris­tol-My­ers star Op­di­vo fails sur­vival test in a matchup with Nex­avar aimed at shak­ing up the big HCC mar­ket

Bris­tol-My­ers Squibb has suf­fered an­oth­er painful set­back in its years-long quest to ex­pand the reach of Op­di­vo. The phar­ma gi­ant this morn­ing not­ed that their Check­mate-459 study com­par­ing Op­di­vo with Bay­er’s Nex­avar in front­line cas­es of he­pa­to­cel­lu­lar car­ci­no­ma — the most com­mon form of liv­er can­cer — failed to hit the pri­ma­ry end­point on over­all sur­vival.

This was a sig­nif­i­cant mile­stone in Bris­tol-My­ers’ tal­ly of PD-1 cat­a­lysts this year. Nex­avar (so­rafenib) has been the stan­dard of care in front­line HCC for the past decade, though Op­di­vo has been mak­ing head­way in sec­ond-line HCC cas­es, where it’s go­ing toe-to-toe with Bay­er’s Sti­var­ga (re­go­rafenib) af­ter re­cent ap­provals shook up the mar­ket.

Dean Hum. Nasdaq via YouTube

Gen­fit goes to Chi­na with a deal worth up to $228M for NASH drug

Fresh off the high of its Nas­daq IPO de­but, and the low of com­par­isons to Cymabay — whose NASH drug re­cent­ly stum­bled — Gen­fit on Mon­day un­veiled an up to $228 mil­lion deal with transpa­cif­ic biotech Terns Phar­ma­ceu­ti­cals to de­vel­op its flag­ship ex­per­i­men­tal liv­er drug — elafi­bra­nor — in Greater Chi­na.

The deal comes more than a week af­ter Gen­fit $GN­FT is­sued a fiery de­fense of its dual PPAR ag­o­nist elafi­bra­nor, when com­peti­tor Cymabay’s PPARδ ag­o­nist, se­ladel­par, fiz­zled in a snap­shot of da­ta from an on­go­ing mid-stage tri­al. The main goal at the end of 12 weeks was for se­ladel­par to in­duce a sta­tis­ti­cal­ly sig­nif­i­cant im­prove­ment in liv­er fat con­tent, but da­ta showed that pa­tients on the place­bo ac­tu­al­ly per­formed bet­ter.