Ker­ris­dale’s Sahm Ad­ran­gi leads a bru­tal new biotech short at­tack as tri­al re­sults loom

Ker­ris­dale Cap­i­tal’s Sahm Ad­ran­gi has called a cou­ple of re­cent biotech dis­as­ters in ad­vance. Just two months ago his pre­dic­tion that Bavar­i­an Nordic’s can­cer vac­cine would flunk a long-run­ning study proved ac­cu­rate, and that came right on the heels of Sage’s ug­ly mis­fire on SRSE demon­strat­ing that the drug was no bet­ter than a place­bo in get­ting a re­sponse.

Sahm Ad­ran­gi

Now the in­flu­en­tial hedge fund man­ag­er has got a new biotech in his sights, and this morn­ing he’s pulling the trig­ger on an­oth­er short at­tack, blast­ing the com­pa­ny’s lead drug as an ab­solute fail­ure in the mak­ing.

The biotech is Prothena $PR­TA and the drug is NEOD001, an AL amy­loi­do­sis drug which fig­ures promi­nent­ly in a mar­ket cap that has swelled well past the $2 bil­lion mark.

Ac­cord­ing to Ker­ris­dale an­a­lysts, the Phase I/II study for this drug failed to show any promise. Point­ing to ex­pert — though un­named — fig­ures in the field, the da­ta from the loom­ing Phase IIb and Phase III stud­ies will prove the drug’s worth­less­ness be­yond any doubt.

“It’s clear that this has no chance of suc­cess,” Ad­ran­gi tells me. “Both stud­ies are go­ing to flop.”

Any ex­pec­ta­tions of suc­cess, they add, are built on ran­dom re­spons­es for the NT-proB­NP bio­mark­er that are like­ly to hap­pen at any time in any case.

To be sure, Ker­ris­dale’s mis­sion is clear here — and it’s al­so con­tro­ver­sial in a mar­ket that of­ten sin­gles out shorts for crit­i­cism. Hav­ing pre­dict­ed a cat­a­stro­phe in the clin­ic, it’s now bet­ting that Prothena’s shares will tank, and if it does they stand to prof­it enor­mous­ly. But in a field where anony­mous short at­tacks are a dime a dozen, Ker­ris­dale’s Ad­ran­gi goes pub­lic with his gam­bles, and the rea­sons why he’s gone on the of­fen­sive. They rep­re­sent the po­lar op­po­site of the sell-side notes, which of­ten gain wide­spread at­ten­tion for rosy sce­nar­ios.

Prothena’s shares dropped 8% on the re­port this morn­ing.

I’ve queried Prothena ex­ecs for a re­sponse as Ker­ris­dale’s re­port hit Wednes­day morn­ing.

Ker­ris­dale’s short re­ports — they al­so go long on oc­ca­sion — are typ­i­cal­ly harsh and Prothena is no ex­cep­tion. Some key points:

  • “Prothena’s “best re­sponse” is an un­in­for­ma­tive mea­sure that sub­sti­tutes vari­ance for ef­fi­ca­cy, and Prothena pro­vides this in lieu of mean­ing­ful da­ta be­cause NEOD001 does not work.” The re­port cites one pa­tient who had to drop out of the study af­ter a dan­ger­ous de­vel­op­ment, but was still count­ed as a suc­cess. And Ker­ris­dale ac­cus­es Prothena of hid­ing bad da­ta.
  • “Prothena’s car­diac best re­sponse rate is mere­ly a byprod­uct of well-doc­u­ment­ed nat­ur­al vari­ance, and we be­lieve there is no chance of NEOD001 pro­duc­ing sta­tis­ti­cal­ly sig­nif­i­cant re­sults in its cur­rent Phase 2b and Phase 3 tri­als.”
  • There was no dose re­sponse rate tracked and no way the drug can beat the re­spons­es seen in a con­trol arm.
  • The sci­ence is bad. “The pro­teins and amy­loid struc­tures vary be­tween pa­tients and even among amy­loid de­posits with­in a sin­gle pa­tient far too much for a sin­gle cryp­tic epi­tope to work with any con­sis­ten­cy.”

And they even go af­ter Neil Wood­ford, a backer who has al­so in­vest­ed in North­west Bio­ther­a­peu­tics, now trad­ing as a pen­ny stock.

Prothena re­cent­ly wrote off a pso­ri­a­sis drug af­ter a dis­ap­point­ing Phase Ib, blunt­ly call­ing the da­ta a dis­ap­point­ment. But Ad­ran­gi and his an­a­lyst say they had no choice in the mat­ter, call­ing it im­pos­si­ble to mask.

Ker­ris­dale takes no pris­on­ers dur­ing these at­tacks.

Health­care Dis­par­i­ties and Sick­le Cell Dis­ease

In the complicated U.S. healthcare system, navigating a serious illness such as cancer or heart disease can be remarkably challenging for patients and caregivers. When that illness is classified as a rare disease, those challenges can become even more acute. And when that rare disease occurs in a population that experiences health disparities, such as people with sickle cell disease (SCD) who are primarily Black and Latino, challenges can become almost insurmountable.

Jacob Van Naarden (Eli Lilly)

Ex­clu­sives: Eli Lil­ly out to crash the megablock­buster PD-(L)1 par­ty with 'dis­rup­tive' pric­ing; re­veals can­cer biotech buy­out

It’s taken 7 years, but Eli Lilly is promising to finally start hammering the small and affluent PD-(L)1 club with a “disruptive” pricing strategy for their checkpoint therapy allied with China’s Innovent.

Lilly in-licensed global rights to sintilimab a year ago, building on the China alliance they have with Innovent. That cost the pharma giant $200 million in cash upfront, which they plan to capitalize on now with a long-awaited plan to bust up the high-price market in lung cancer and other cancers that have created a market worth tens of billions of dollars.

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David Meek, new Mirati CEO (Marlene Awaad/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Fresh off Fer­Gene's melt­down, David Meek takes over at Mi­rati with lead KRAS drug rac­ing to an ap­proval

In the insular world of biotech, a spectacular failure can sometimes stay on any executive’s record for a long time. But for David Meek, the man at the helm of FerGene’s recent implosion, two questionable exits made way for what could be an excellent rebound.

Meek, most recently FerGene’s CEO and a past head at Ipsen, has become CEO at Mirati Therapeutics, taking the reins from founding CEO Charles Baum, who will step over into the role of president and head of R&D, according to a release.

FDA hands ac­cel­er­at­ed nod to Seagen, Gen­mab's so­lo ADC in cer­vi­cal can­cer, but com­bo stud­ies look even more promis­ing

Biopharma’s resident antibody-drug conjugate expert Seagen has scored a clutch of oncology approvals in recent years, finding gold in what are known as “third-gen” ADCs. Now, another of their partnered conjugates is ready for prime time.

The FDA on Monday handed an accelerated approval to Seagen and Genmab’s Tivdak (tisotumab vedotin-tftv, or “TV”) in second-line patients with recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer who previously progressed after chemotherapy rather than PD-(L)1 systemic therapy, the companies said in a release.

Dave Lennon, former president of Novartis Gene Therapies

Zol­gens­ma patent spat brews be­tween No­var­tis and Re­genxbio as top No­var­tis gene ther­a­py ex­ec de­parts

Regenxbio, a small licensor of gene therapy viral vectors spun out from the University of Pennsylvania, is now finding itself in the middle of some major league patent fights.

In addition to a patent suit with Sarepta Therapeutics from last September, Novartis, is now trying to push its smaller partner out of the way. The Swiss biopharma licensed Regenxbio’s AAV9 vector for its $2.1 million spinal muscular atrophy therapy Zolgensma.

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Ex-My­lan em­ploy­ee pleads guilty to in­sid­er trad­ing, il­le­gal­ly deal­ing on FDA ap­provals, earn­ings and Up­john merg­er

A former Mylan IT executive pleaded guilty Friday to an insider trading scheme where he bought and sold stock options on another executive’s advice.

Prosecutors secured the plea from Dayakar Mallu, Mylan’s former VP of global operations information technology, after uncovering the plan. Mallu collaborated with an unnamed “senior manager,” the SEC said, to trade options ahead of Mylan public announcements regarding FDA approvals, revenue reports and its merger with the Pfizer generics subsidiary Upjohn. The two subsequently shared profits.

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Volker Wagner (L) and Jeff Legos

As Bay­er, No­var­tis stack up their ra­dio­phar­ma­ceu­ti­cal da­ta at #ES­MO21, a key de­bate takes shape

Ten years ago, a small Norwegian biotech by the name of Algeta showed up at ESMO — then the European Multidisciplinary Cancer Conference 2011 — and declared that its Bayer-partnered targeted radionuclide therapy, radium-223 chloride, boosted the overall survival of castration-resistant prostate cancer patients with symptomatic bone metastases.

In a Phase III study dubbed ALSYMPCA, patients who were treated with radium-223 chloride lived a median of 14 months compared to 11.2 months. The FDA would stamp an approval on it based on those data two years later, after Bayer snapped up Algeta and christened the drug Xofigo.

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Rafaèle Tordjman (Jeito Capital)

Con­ti­nu­ity and di­ver­si­ty: Rafaèle Tord­j­man's women-led VC firm tops out first fund at $630M

For a first-time fund, Jeito Capital talks a lot about continuity.

Rafaèle Tordjman had spotlighted that concept ever since she started building the firm in 2018, promising to go the extra mile(s) with biotech entrepreneurs while pushing them to reach patients faster.

Coincidentally, the lack of continuity was one of the sore spots listed in a report about the European healthcare sector published that same year by the European Investment Bank — whose fund is one of the LPs, alongside the American pension fund Teacher Retirement System of Texas and Singapore’s Temasek, to help Jeito close its first fund at $630 million (€534 million). As previously reported, Sanofi had chimed in €50 million, marking its first investment in a French life sciences fund.

Mi­rati tri­umphs again in KRAS-mu­tat­ed lung can­cer with a close­ly watched FDA fil­ing now in the cards

After a busy weekend at #ESMO21, which included a big readout for its KRAS drug adagrasib in colon cancer, Mirati Therapeutics is ready to keep the pressure on competitor Amgen with lung cancer data that will undergird an upcoming filing.

In topline results from a Phase II cohort of its KRYSTAL-1 study, adagrasib posted a response rate of 43% in second-line-or-later patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer containing a KRAS-G12C mutation, Mirati said Monday.