Ker­ris­dale’s Sahm Ad­ran­gi leads a bru­tal new biotech short at­tack as tri­al re­sults loom

Ker­ris­dale Cap­i­tal’s Sahm Ad­ran­gi has called a cou­ple of re­cent biotech dis­as­ters in ad­vance. Just two months ago his pre­dic­tion that Bavar­i­an Nordic’s can­cer vac­cine would flunk a long-run­ning study proved ac­cu­rate, and that came right on the heels of Sage’s ug­ly mis­fire on SRSE demon­strat­ing that the drug was no bet­ter than a place­bo in get­ting a re­sponse.

Sahm Ad­ran­gi

Now the in­flu­en­tial hedge fund man­ag­er has got a new biotech in his sights, and this morn­ing he’s pulling the trig­ger on an­oth­er short at­tack, blast­ing the com­pa­ny’s lead drug as an ab­solute fail­ure in the mak­ing.

The biotech is Prothena $PR­TA and the drug is NEOD001, an AL amy­loi­do­sis drug which fig­ures promi­nent­ly in a mar­ket cap that has swelled well past the $2 bil­lion mark.

Ac­cord­ing to Ker­ris­dale an­a­lysts, the Phase I/II study for this drug failed to show any promise. Point­ing to ex­pert — though un­named — fig­ures in the field, the da­ta from the loom­ing Phase IIb and Phase III stud­ies will prove the drug’s worth­less­ness be­yond any doubt.

“It’s clear that this has no chance of suc­cess,” Ad­ran­gi tells me. “Both stud­ies are go­ing to flop.”

Any ex­pec­ta­tions of suc­cess, they add, are built on ran­dom re­spons­es for the NT-proB­NP bio­mark­er that are like­ly to hap­pen at any time in any case.

To be sure, Ker­ris­dale’s mis­sion is clear here — and it’s al­so con­tro­ver­sial in a mar­ket that of­ten sin­gles out shorts for crit­i­cism. Hav­ing pre­dict­ed a cat­a­stro­phe in the clin­ic, it’s now bet­ting that Prothena’s shares will tank, and if it does they stand to prof­it enor­mous­ly. But in a field where anony­mous short at­tacks are a dime a dozen, Ker­ris­dale’s Ad­ran­gi goes pub­lic with his gam­bles, and the rea­sons why he’s gone on the of­fen­sive. They rep­re­sent the po­lar op­po­site of the sell-side notes, which of­ten gain wide­spread at­ten­tion for rosy sce­nar­ios.

Prothena’s shares dropped 8% on the re­port this morn­ing.

I’ve queried Prothena ex­ecs for a re­sponse as Ker­ris­dale’s re­port hit Wednes­day morn­ing.

Ker­ris­dale’s short re­ports — they al­so go long on oc­ca­sion — are typ­i­cal­ly harsh and Prothena is no ex­cep­tion. Some key points:

  • “Prothena’s “best re­sponse” is an un­in­for­ma­tive mea­sure that sub­sti­tutes vari­ance for ef­fi­ca­cy, and Prothena pro­vides this in lieu of mean­ing­ful da­ta be­cause NEOD001 does not work.” The re­port cites one pa­tient who had to drop out of the study af­ter a dan­ger­ous de­vel­op­ment, but was still count­ed as a suc­cess. And Ker­ris­dale ac­cus­es Prothena of hid­ing bad da­ta.
  • “Prothena’s car­diac best re­sponse rate is mere­ly a byprod­uct of well-doc­u­ment­ed nat­ur­al vari­ance, and we be­lieve there is no chance of NEOD001 pro­duc­ing sta­tis­ti­cal­ly sig­nif­i­cant re­sults in its cur­rent Phase 2b and Phase 3 tri­als.”
  • There was no dose re­sponse rate tracked and no way the drug can beat the re­spons­es seen in a con­trol arm.
  • The sci­ence is bad. “The pro­teins and amy­loid struc­tures vary be­tween pa­tients and even among amy­loid de­posits with­in a sin­gle pa­tient far too much for a sin­gle cryp­tic epi­tope to work with any con­sis­ten­cy.”

And they even go af­ter Neil Wood­ford, a backer who has al­so in­vest­ed in North­west Bio­ther­a­peu­tics, now trad­ing as a pen­ny stock.

Prothena re­cent­ly wrote off a pso­ri­a­sis drug af­ter a dis­ap­point­ing Phase Ib, blunt­ly call­ing the da­ta a dis­ap­point­ment. But Ad­ran­gi and his an­a­lyst say they had no choice in the mat­ter, call­ing it im­pos­si­ble to mask.

Ker­ris­dale takes no pris­on­ers dur­ing these at­tacks.

In his­toric Covid-19 ad­comm, vac­cine ex­perts de­bate a sea of ques­tions — but of­fer no clear an­swers

The most widely anticipated and perhaps most widely watched meeting in the FDA’s 113-year history ended late Thursday night with a score of questions and very few answers.

For nearly 9 hours, 18 different outside experts listened to public health agencies and foundations present how the United States’ Covid-19 vaccine program developed through October, and they debated where it should go from there: Were companies testing the right metrics in their massive trials? How long should they track patients before declaring a vaccine safe or effective? Should a vaccine, once authorized, be given to the volunteers in the placebo arm of a trial?

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Pascal Soriot, AstraZeneca CEO (Zach Gibson/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

UP­DAT­ED: FDA gives As­traZeneca the thumbs-up to restart PhI­II Covid-19 vac­cine tri­als, and J&J is prepar­ing to re­sume its study

Several countries had restarted their portions of AstraZeneca’s global Phase III Covid-19 vaccine trial after the study was paused worldwide in early September, but the US notably stayed on the sidelines — until now. Friday afternoon the pharma giant announced the all clear from US regulators. And on top of that, J&J announced Friday evening that it’s preparing to resume its own Phase III vaccine trial.

Dan O'Day, Gilead CEO (Andrew Harnik, AP Images)

UP­DAT­ED: FDA anoints Gilead­'s remde­sivir as the Covid-19 treat­ment win­ner, hand­ing down full ap­proval — de­spite some deep skep­ti­cism

Seven months into the Covid-19 pandemic, the race to develop a treatment for the disease that’s proved to be the biggest health crisis in a century has an officially designated winner: Gilead. And they’re picking up the prize — worth billions in peak sales — despite a major study that concluded the drug was no help in reducing the number of people who die from the virus.

The FDA handed down a thumbs-up for remdesivir, the company announced Thursday afternoon, as the drug becomes the first fully approved treatment for Covid-19 in the US. Remdesivir, to be marketed as Veklury, will come with a label for treatment in adults and children older than 12 in Covid-19 cases that require hospitalization.

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Ul­tragenyx in­jects $40M to grab Solid's mi­crody­s­trophin trans­gene — while side­step­ping the AAV9 vec­tor that stirred up safe­ty fears

Since before Ilan Ganot started Solid Bio to develop a gene therapy for kids like his son, who has Duchenne muscular dystrophy, Ultragenyx CEO Emil Kakkis has been watching and advising the former investment banker as he navigated the deep waters of drug development.

Just as Solid is getting back up on its feet after a yearlong clinical hold, Kakkis has decided to jump in for a formal alliance.

With a $40 million upfront, Ultragenyx is grabbing 14.45% of Solid’s shares $SLDB and the rights to its microdystrophin construct for use in combination with AAV8 vectors. Solid’s lead program, which utilizes AAV9, remains unaffected. The company also retains rights to other applications of its transgene.

A top drug pro­gram at Bay­er clears a high bar for CKD — open­ing the door to an FDA pitch

Over the past 4 years, Bayer has been steering a major trial through a pivotal program to see if their drug finerenone could slow down the pace of chronic kidney disease in patients suffering from both CKD as well as Type 2 diabetes.

Today, their team jumped on a virtual meeting hosted by the American Society of Nephrology to offer a solid set of pivotal data to demonstrate that the drug can delay dialysis or a kidney replacement as well as cardio disease, while also adding some worrying signs of hyperkalemia among the patients taking the drug. And they’re hustling it straight to regulators in search of an approval for kidney disease and cardio patients — one of the toughest challenges in the book, as demonstrated by repeated past failures.

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Adam Koppel and Jeffrey Schwartz, Bain

Bain ex­ecs Adam Kop­pel and Jef­frey Schwartz line up $125M for their first blank check deal as Wall Street con­tin­ues to em­brace biotech

Adam Koppel and Jeffrey Schwartz have jumped into the blank check game, raising $125 million for a stock listing in search of a company.

Their SPAC, BCLS Acquisition Corp, raised $125 million this week, with a line on $25 million more as it scouts for a biotech in search of money and a place on Wall Street.

The two principals at Bain Life Sciences have been on a romp since they set up the Bain operation 4 years ago. Their S-1 spells out a track record of 22 deals totaling $650 million for the life sciences group, which led to 9 IPOs.

Covid-19 roundup: An mR­NA play­er gets a boost out of the lat­est round of an­i­mal da­ta; Phase­Bio pulls the plug on treat­ment tri­al

The big tell for CureVac $CVAC is coming up with a looming early-stage readout on their mRNA Covid-19 vaccine in the clinic. But for now they’ll make do with an upbeat assessment on the preclinical animal data they used to get into the clinic.

Researchers for the German biotech say they got the high antibody titers and T cell activation they were looking for, lining up a hamster challenge to demonstrate — in a simple model — that the vaccine could protect the furry creatures. Like the other mRNA vaccines, the drug sends instructions to spur cells to decorate themselves with the distinctive spike on the virus to elicit an immune response.

UP­DAT­ED: In­di­v­ior's Shaun Thax­ter heads to prison, join­ing In­sys' John Kapoor among jailed opi­oid ex­ecs

Update: An earlier version of this article misidentified the jailed Insys CEO. Former CEO John Kapoor was sentenced to 5.5 years in prison in January. Endpoints News regrets the error.

The Justice Department’s years-long battle with Indivior has arrived at a rare place: the jailing of a pharmaceutical executive.

A US district court sentenced long-running Indivior CEO Shaun Thaxter to 6 months in federal prison for his role in company efforts to mislead a major healthcare provider about the safety and abusability of their opioid addiction drug Suboxone, which generated billions in revenue over the last decade. Thaxter joins former Insys CEO John Kapoor as one of the only two executives to face prison time for their roles in the opioid epidemic.

Michel Vounatsos, Biogen CEO (via YouTube)

UP­DAT­ED: Bio­gen spot­lights a pair of painful pipeline set­backs as ad­u­canum­ab show­down looms at the FDA

Biogen has flagged a pair of setbacks in the pipeline, spotlighting the final failure for a one-time top MS prospect while scrapping a gene therapy for SMA after the IND was put on hold due to toxicity.

Both failures will raise the stakes even higher on aducanumab, the Alzheimer’s drug that Biogen is betting the ranch on, determined to pursue an FDA OK despite significant skepticism they can make it with mixed results and a reliance on post hoc data mining. And the failures are being reported as Biogen was forced to cut its profit forecast for 2020 as a generic rival started to erode their big franchise drug.

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