Ker­ris­dale’s Sahm Ad­ran­gi leads a bru­tal new biotech short at­tack as tri­al re­sults loom

Ker­ris­dale Cap­i­tal’s Sahm Ad­ran­gi has called a cou­ple of re­cent biotech dis­as­ters in ad­vance. Just two months ago his pre­dic­tion that Bavar­i­an Nordic’s can­cer vac­cine would flunk a long-run­ning study proved ac­cu­rate, and that came right on the heels of Sage’s ug­ly mis­fire on SRSE demon­strat­ing that the drug was no bet­ter than a place­bo in get­ting a re­sponse.

Sahm Ad­ran­gi

Now the in­flu­en­tial hedge fund man­ag­er has got a new biotech in his sights, and this morn­ing he’s pulling the trig­ger on an­oth­er short at­tack, blast­ing the com­pa­ny’s lead drug as an ab­solute fail­ure in the mak­ing.

The biotech is Prothena $PR­TA and the drug is NEOD001, an AL amy­loi­do­sis drug which fig­ures promi­nent­ly in a mar­ket cap that has swelled well past the $2 bil­lion mark.

Ac­cord­ing to Ker­ris­dale an­a­lysts, the Phase I/II study for this drug failed to show any promise. Point­ing to ex­pert — though un­named — fig­ures in the field, the da­ta from the loom­ing Phase IIb and Phase III stud­ies will prove the drug’s worth­less­ness be­yond any doubt.

“It’s clear that this has no chance of suc­cess,” Ad­ran­gi tells me. “Both stud­ies are go­ing to flop.”

Any ex­pec­ta­tions of suc­cess, they add, are built on ran­dom re­spons­es for the NT-proB­NP bio­mark­er that are like­ly to hap­pen at any time in any case.

To be sure, Ker­ris­dale’s mis­sion is clear here — and it’s al­so con­tro­ver­sial in a mar­ket that of­ten sin­gles out shorts for crit­i­cism. Hav­ing pre­dict­ed a cat­a­stro­phe in the clin­ic, it’s now bet­ting that Prothena’s shares will tank, and if it does they stand to prof­it enor­mous­ly. But in a field where anony­mous short at­tacks are a dime a dozen, Ker­ris­dale’s Ad­ran­gi goes pub­lic with his gam­bles, and the rea­sons why he’s gone on the of­fen­sive. They rep­re­sent the po­lar op­po­site of the sell-side notes, which of­ten gain wide­spread at­ten­tion for rosy sce­nar­ios.

Prothena’s shares dropped 8% on the re­port this morn­ing.

I’ve queried Prothena ex­ecs for a re­sponse as Ker­ris­dale’s re­port hit Wednes­day morn­ing.

Ker­ris­dale’s short re­ports — they al­so go long on oc­ca­sion — are typ­i­cal­ly harsh and Prothena is no ex­cep­tion. Some key points:

  • “Prothena’s “best re­sponse” is an un­in­for­ma­tive mea­sure that sub­sti­tutes vari­ance for ef­fi­ca­cy, and Prothena pro­vides this in lieu of mean­ing­ful da­ta be­cause NEOD001 does not work.” The re­port cites one pa­tient who had to drop out of the study af­ter a dan­ger­ous de­vel­op­ment, but was still count­ed as a suc­cess. And Ker­ris­dale ac­cus­es Prothena of hid­ing bad da­ta.
  • “Prothena’s car­diac best re­sponse rate is mere­ly a byprod­uct of well-doc­u­ment­ed nat­ur­al vari­ance, and we be­lieve there is no chance of NEOD001 pro­duc­ing sta­tis­ti­cal­ly sig­nif­i­cant re­sults in its cur­rent Phase 2b and Phase 3 tri­als.”
  • There was no dose re­sponse rate tracked and no way the drug can beat the re­spons­es seen in a con­trol arm.
  • The sci­ence is bad. “The pro­teins and amy­loid struc­tures vary be­tween pa­tients and even among amy­loid de­posits with­in a sin­gle pa­tient far too much for a sin­gle cryp­tic epi­tope to work with any con­sis­ten­cy.”

And they even go af­ter Neil Wood­ford, a backer who has al­so in­vest­ed in North­west Bio­ther­a­peu­tics, now trad­ing as a pen­ny stock.

Prothena re­cent­ly wrote off a pso­ri­a­sis drug af­ter a dis­ap­point­ing Phase Ib, blunt­ly call­ing the da­ta a dis­ap­point­ment. But Ad­ran­gi and his an­a­lyst say they had no choice in the mat­ter, call­ing it im­pos­si­ble to mask.

Ker­ris­dale takes no pris­on­ers dur­ing these at­tacks.

Scoop: Boehringer qui­et­ly shut­ters a PhII for one of its top drugs — now un­der re­view

Boehringer Ingelheim has quietly shut down a small Phase II study for one of its lead drugs.

The private pharma player confirmed to Endpoints News that it had shuttered a study testing spesolimab as a therapy for Crohn’s patients suffering from bowel obstructions.

A spokesperson for the company tells Endpoints:

Taking into consideration the current therapeutic landscape and ongoing clinical development programs, Boehringer Ingelheim decided to discontinue our program in Crohn’s disease. It is important to note that this decision is not based on any safety findings in the clinical trials.

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Alex­ion puts €65M for­ward to strength­en its po­si­tion on the Emer­ald Isle

Ireland has been on a roll in 2022, with several large pharma companies announcing multimillion-euro projects. Now AstraZeneca’s rare disease outfit Alexion is looking to get in on the action.

Alexion on Friday announced a €65 million ($68.8 million) investment in new and enhanced capabilities across two sites in the country, including at College Park in the Dublin suburb of Blanchardstown and the Monksland Industrial Park in the central Irish town of Athlone, according to the Industrial Development Agency of Ireland.

Fed­er­al judge de­nies Bris­tol My­er­s' at­tempt to avoid Cel­gene share­hold­er law­suit

Some Celgene shareholders aren’t happy with how Bristol Myers Squibb’s takeover went down.

On Friday, a New York federal judge ruled that they have a case against the pharma giant, denying a request to dismiss allegations that it purposely slow-rolled Breyanzi’s approval to avoid paying out $6.4 billion in contingent value rights (CVR).

When Bristol Myers put down $74 billion to scoop up Celgene back in 2019, liso-cel — the CAR-T lymphoma treatment now marketed as Breyanzi — was supposedly one of the centerpieces of the deal. After going back and forth on negotiations for about six months, BMS put $6.4 billion into a CVR agreement that required an FDA approval for Zeposia, Breyanzi and Abecma, each by an established date.

Am­gen takes next step with its Chi­na am­bi­tions, out-li­cens­ing drugs to Fo­s­un Phar­ma

In a bid to increase its market share in China, Amgen has agreed to a partnership with a Shanghai biotech — a collaboration and out-licensing agreement for two of its drugs.

Amgen and Fosun Pharma announced a deal Monday in a bid to increase Amgen’s presence in the country. The stated goal so far is to commercialize Amgen’s blockbuster psoriasis drug Otezla alongside Parsabiv, a drug for secondary hyperparathyroidism in adults with chronic kidney disease and on a specific type of dialysis.

As court case looms, Bris­tol My­ers touts la­bel ex­pan­sion for Breyanzi

As Bristol Myers Squibb braces for a court battle over a costly delay — at least for Celgene shareholders — for its CAR-T lymphoma treatment Breyanzi, the pharma giant is touting a label expansion in the second-line setting.

Breyanzi, also known as liso-cel, snagged a win on Friday in adults with large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL) who: don’t respond to chemotherapy, or relapse within 12 months; don’t respond or relapse after 12 months; or are not eligible for hematopoietic stem cell transplant after chemo due to their age or comorbidities.

State bat­tles over mifepri­s­tone ac­cess could tie the FDA to any post-Roe cross­roads

As more than a dozen states are now readying so-called “trigger” laws to kick into effect immediate abortion bans following the overturning of Roe v. Wade on Friday, these laws, in the works for more than a decade in some states, will likely kick off even more legal battles as states seek to restrict the use of prescription drug-based abortions.

Since Friday’s SCOTUS opinion to overturn Americans’ constitutional right to an abortion after almost 50 years, reproductive rights lawyers at Planned Parenthood and other organizations have already challenged these trigger laws in Utah and Louisiana. According to the Guttmacher Institute, other states with trigger laws that could take effect include Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Wyoming.

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Deborah Dunsire, Lundbeck CEO

Af­ter a 5-year re­peat PhI­II so­journ, Lund­beck and Ot­su­ka say they're fi­nal­ly ready to pur­sue OK to use Rex­ul­ti against Alzheimer's ag­i­ta­tion

Five years after Lundbeck and their longtime collaborators at Otsuka turned up a mixed set of Phase III data for Rexulti as a treatment for Alzheimer’s dementia-related agitation, they’ve come through with a new pivotal trial success they believe will finally put them on the road to an approval at the FDA. And if they’re right, some analysts believe they’re a short step away from adding more than $500 million in annual sales for the drug, already approved in depression and schizophrenia.

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A Mer­ck part­ner is sucked in­to the fi­nan­cial quag­mire as key lender calls in a note

Another biotech standing on shaky financial legs has fallen victim to the bears.

Merck partner 4D Pharma has reported that a key lender, Oxford Finance, shoved the UK company into administration after calling in a $14 million loan they couldn’t immediately make good on. Trading in their stock was halted with a market cap that had fallen to a mere £30 million.

“Despite the very difficult prevailing market conditions,” 4D reported on Friday, the biotech had been making progress on finding some new financing and turned to Oxford with an alternative late on Thursday and then again Friday morning.

Members of the G7 from left to right: Prime Minister of Italy Mario Draghi, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Council President Charles Michel (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

Biden and G7 na­tions of­fer funds for vac­cine and med­ical prod­uct man­u­fac­tur­ing project in Sene­gal

Amidst recently broader vaccine manufacturing initiatives from the EU and European companies, the G7 summit in the mountains of Bavaria has brought about some positive news for closing vaccine and medical product manufacturing gaps around the globe.

According to a statement from the White House, the G7 leaders have formally launched the partnership for global infrastructure, PGII. The effort will aim to mobilize hundreds of billions of dollars to deliver infrastructure projects in several sectors including the medical and pharmaceutical manufacturing space.