Ker­ris­dale’s Sahm Ad­ran­gi leads a bru­tal new biotech short at­tack as tri­al re­sults loom

Ker­ris­dale Cap­i­tal’s Sahm Ad­ran­gi has called a cou­ple of re­cent biotech dis­as­ters in ad­vance. Just two months ago his pre­dic­tion that Bavar­i­an Nordic’s can­cer vac­cine would flunk a long-run­ning study proved ac­cu­rate, and that came right on the heels of Sage’s ug­ly mis­fire on SRSE demon­strat­ing that the drug was no bet­ter than a place­bo in get­ting a re­sponse.

Sahm Ad­ran­gi

Now the in­flu­en­tial hedge fund man­ag­er has got a new biotech in his sights, and this morn­ing he’s pulling the trig­ger on an­oth­er short at­tack, blast­ing the com­pa­ny’s lead drug as an ab­solute fail­ure in the mak­ing.

The biotech is Prothena $PR­TA and the drug is NEOD001, an AL amy­loi­do­sis drug which fig­ures promi­nent­ly in a mar­ket cap that has swelled well past the $2 bil­lion mark.

Ac­cord­ing to Ker­ris­dale an­a­lysts, the Phase I/II study for this drug failed to show any promise. Point­ing to ex­pert — though un­named — fig­ures in the field, the da­ta from the loom­ing Phase IIb and Phase III stud­ies will prove the drug’s worth­less­ness be­yond any doubt.

“It’s clear that this has no chance of suc­cess,” Ad­ran­gi tells me. “Both stud­ies are go­ing to flop.”

Any ex­pec­ta­tions of suc­cess, they add, are built on ran­dom re­spons­es for the NT-proB­NP bio­mark­er that are like­ly to hap­pen at any time in any case.

To be sure, Ker­ris­dale’s mis­sion is clear here — and it’s al­so con­tro­ver­sial in a mar­ket that of­ten sin­gles out shorts for crit­i­cism. Hav­ing pre­dict­ed a cat­a­stro­phe in the clin­ic, it’s now bet­ting that Prothena’s shares will tank, and if it does they stand to prof­it enor­mous­ly. But in a field where anony­mous short at­tacks are a dime a dozen, Ker­ris­dale’s Ad­ran­gi goes pub­lic with his gam­bles, and the rea­sons why he’s gone on the of­fen­sive. They rep­re­sent the po­lar op­po­site of the sell-side notes, which of­ten gain wide­spread at­ten­tion for rosy sce­nar­ios.

Prothena’s shares dropped 8% on the re­port this morn­ing.

I’ve queried Prothena ex­ecs for a re­sponse as Ker­ris­dale’s re­port hit Wednes­day morn­ing.

Ker­ris­dale’s short re­ports — they al­so go long on oc­ca­sion — are typ­i­cal­ly harsh and Prothena is no ex­cep­tion. Some key points:

  • “Prothena’s “best re­sponse” is an un­in­for­ma­tive mea­sure that sub­sti­tutes vari­ance for ef­fi­ca­cy, and Prothena pro­vides this in lieu of mean­ing­ful da­ta be­cause NEOD001 does not work.” The re­port cites one pa­tient who had to drop out of the study af­ter a dan­ger­ous de­vel­op­ment, but was still count­ed as a suc­cess. And Ker­ris­dale ac­cus­es Prothena of hid­ing bad da­ta.
  • “Prothena’s car­diac best re­sponse rate is mere­ly a byprod­uct of well-doc­u­ment­ed nat­ur­al vari­ance, and we be­lieve there is no chance of NEOD001 pro­duc­ing sta­tis­ti­cal­ly sig­nif­i­cant re­sults in its cur­rent Phase 2b and Phase 3 tri­als.”
  • There was no dose re­sponse rate tracked and no way the drug can beat the re­spons­es seen in a con­trol arm.
  • The sci­ence is bad. “The pro­teins and amy­loid struc­tures vary be­tween pa­tients and even among amy­loid de­posits with­in a sin­gle pa­tient far too much for a sin­gle cryp­tic epi­tope to work with any con­sis­ten­cy.”

And they even go af­ter Neil Wood­ford, a backer who has al­so in­vest­ed in North­west Bio­ther­a­peu­tics, now trad­ing as a pen­ny stock.

Prothena re­cent­ly wrote off a pso­ri­a­sis drug af­ter a dis­ap­point­ing Phase Ib, blunt­ly call­ing the da­ta a dis­ap­point­ment. But Ad­ran­gi and his an­a­lyst say they had no choice in the mat­ter, call­ing it im­pos­si­ble to mask.

Ker­ris­dale takes no pris­on­ers dur­ing these at­tacks.

BiTE® Plat­form and the Evo­lu­tion To­ward Off-The-Shelf Im­muno-On­col­o­gy Ap­proach­es

Despite rapid advances in the field of immuno-oncology that have transformed the cancer treatment landscape, many cancer patients are still left behind.1,2 Not every person has access to innovative therapies designed specifically to treat his or her disease. Many currently available immuno-oncology-based approaches and chemotherapies have brought long-term benefits to some patients — but many patients still need other therapeutic options.3

Pfiz­er’s Doug Gior­dano has $500M — and some ad­vice — to of­fer a cer­tain breed of 'break­through' biotech

So let’s say you’re running a cutting-edge, clinical-stage biotech, probably public, but not necessarily so, which could see some big advantages teaming up with some marquee researchers, picking up say $50 million to $75 million dollars in a non-threatening minority equity investment that could take you to the next level.

Doug Giordano might have some thoughts on how that could work out.

The SVP of business development at the pharma giant has helped forge a new fund called the Pfizer Breakthrough Growth Initiative. And he has $500 million of Pfizer’s money to put behind 7 to 10 — or so — biotech stocks that fit that general description.

Endpoints News

Keep reading Endpoints with a free subscription

Unlock this story instantly and join 82,100+ biopharma pros reading Endpoints daily — and it's free.

Gilead re­leas­es an­oth­er round of murky remde­sivir re­sults

A month after the NIH declared the first trial on remdesivir in Covid-19 a success, Gilead is out with new results on their antiviral. But although the study met one of its primary endpoints, the data are likely to only add to a growing debate over how effective the drug actually is.

In a Phase III trial, patients given a 5-day dose of remdesivir were 65% more likely to show “clinical improvement” compared to an arm given standard-of-care. The trial, though, gave little indication for whether the drug had an impact on key endpoints such as survival or time-to-recovery. And in a surprising twist, a 10-day dosing arm of remdesivir didn’t lead to a statistically significant improvement over standard of care.

Endpoints News

Keep reading Endpoints with a free subscription

Unlock this story instantly and join 82,100+ biopharma pros reading Endpoints daily — and it's free.

Ken Frazier, AP Images

Why Mer­ck wait­ed, and what they now bring to the Covid-19 fight

Nicholas Kartsonis had been running clinical infectious disease research at Merck for almost 2 years when, in mid-January, he got a new assignment: searching the pharma giant’s vast libraries for something that could treat the novel coronavirus.

The outbreak was barely two weeks old when Kartsonis and a few dozen others got to work, first in small teams and then in a larger task force that sucked in more and more parts of the sprawling company as Covid-19 infected more and more of the globe. By late February, the group began formally searching for vaccine and antiviral candidates to license. Still, while other companies jumped out to announce their programs and, eventually and sometimes controversially, early glimpses at human data, Merck remained silent. They made only a brief announcement about a data collection partnership in April and mentioned vaguely a vaccine and antiviral search in their April 28 earnings call.

Endpoints News

Keep reading Endpoints with a free subscription

Unlock this story instantly and join 82,100+ biopharma pros reading Endpoints daily — and it's free.

Mark Genovese (Stanford via Twitter)

Gilead woos fil­go­tinib clin­i­cal in­ves­ti­ga­tor from Stan­ford to lead the charge on NASH, in­flam­ma­to­ry dis­eases

With an FDA OK for the use of filgotinib in rheumatoid arthritis expected to drop any day now, Gilead has recruited a new leader from academia to lead its foray into inflammatory diseases.

Mark Genovese — a longtime Stanford professor and most recently the clinical chief in the division of immunology and rheumatology — was the principal investigator in FINCH 2, one of three studies that supported Gilead’s NDA filing. In his new role as SVP, inflammation, he will oversee the clinical development of the entire portfolio.

Endpoints News

Keep reading Endpoints with a free subscription

Unlock this story instantly and join 82,100+ biopharma pros reading Endpoints daily — and it's free.

Stephen Isaacs, Aduro president and CEO (Aduro)

Once a high fly­er, a stag­ger­ing Aduro is auc­tion­ing off most of the pipeline as CEO Stephen Isaacs hands off the shell to new own­ers

After a drumbeat of failure, setbacks and reorganizations over the last few years, Aduro CEO Stephen Isaacs is handing over his largely gutted-out shell of a public company to another biotech company and putting up some questionable assets in a going-out-of-business sale.

Isaacs —who forged a string of high-profile Big Pharma deals along the way — has wrapped a 13-year run at the biotech with one program for kidney disease going to the new owners at Chinook Therapeutics. A host of once-heralded assets like their STING agonist program partnered with Novartis (which dumped their work on ADU-S100 after looking over weak clinical results), the Lilly-allied cGAS-STING inhibitor program and the anti-CD27 program out-licensed to Merck will all be posted for auction under a strategic review process.

Endpoints News

Keep reading Endpoints with a free subscription

Unlock this story instantly and join 82,100+ biopharma pros reading Endpoints daily — and it's free.

Hill­house re­casts spot­light on Chi­na's biotech scene with $160M round for Shang­hai-based an­ti­body mak­er

Almost two years after first buying into Genor Biopharma’s pipeline of cancer and autoimmune therapies, Hillhouse Capital has led a $160 million cash injection to push the late-stage assets over the finish line while continuing to fund both internal R&D and dealmaking.

The Series B has landed right around the time Genor would have listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange, according to plans reported by Bloomberg late last year. Insiders had said that the company was looking to raise about $200 million.

Endpoints News

Keep reading Endpoints with a free subscription

Unlock this story instantly and join 82,100+ biopharma pros reading Endpoints daily — and it's free.

Fangliang Zhang (Imaginechina via AP Images)

The big mon­ey: Poised to make drug R&D his­to­ry, a Chi­na biotech un­veils uni­corn rac­ing am­bi­tions in a bid to raise $350M-plus on Nas­daq

Almost exactly three years after Shanghai-based Legend came out of nowhere to steal the show at ASCO with jaw-dropping data on their BCMA-targeted CAR-T for multiple myeloma, the little player with Big Pharma connections is taking a giant step toward making it big on Wall Street. And this time they want to seal the deal on a global rep after staking out a unicorn valuation in what’s turned out to be a bull market for biotech IPOs — in the middle of a pandemic.

Endpoints Premium

Premium subscription required

Unlock this article along with other benefits by subscribing to one of our paid plans.

No­var­tis chips in $10M for IPO-bound part­ner Pli­ant; Tenax shares soar on heart drug da­ta

Novartis is coming in with $10 million to help support the looming IPO of a partner. Pliant Therapeutics posted a new filing with the SEC showing that Novartis is buying the shares at $15, the mid-point of the range. It’s adding several million shares to the offering, bringing the total to around $135 million. Biotech companies have been enjoying quite a run on virtual Wall Street, with investors boosting new offerings to some big hauls.