Nine block­buster drugs to watch are mak­ing their de­but, aim­ing at a $16B prize in 2021

The bio­phar­ma in­dus­try is front-load­ing block­buster drug ap­provals this year.

Clar­i­vate An­a­lyt­ics list­ed the 9 block­busters their an­a­lysts ex­pect to see ap­proved by the FDA this year, and on­ly 4 of them have yet to get the green light in ear­ly Q2, in­clud­ing No­vo Nordisk’s semaglu­tide, their GLP-1 drug for di­a­betes, and As­traZeneca’s PD-L1 check­point dur­val­um­ab.

It’s a new world in the pay­er com­mu­ni­ty, and the con­sen­sus peak sales pro­jec­tions seem to be fur­ther off the mark than ever as the com­mer­cial kick­back grows steadi­ly worse. But it is al­ways in­ter­est­ing to see what an­a­lysts be­lieve the big new drugs of the year are go­ing to be worth 5 years down the road.

In this case, as out­lined in the Drugs to Watch re­port, the to­tal is $16 bil­lion in an­nu­al rev­enue.


Top of the mark: Ocre­vus, the new MS drug from Roche with an es­ti­mat­ed rev­enue stream of $3.3 bil­lion in 2021. Right be­hind comes Dupix­ent, the stel­lar eczema break­through from Re­gen­eron and Sanofi, which is ex­pect­ed to hit $2.8 bil­lion.

Mer­ck KGaA makes the list — prob­a­bly for the first le­git­i­mate block­buster thumbs up in more than a decade — for their check­point avelum­ab, part­nered with Pfiz­er and now ap­proved to be sold as Baven­cio. They have the num­ber 4 check­point on the mar­ket, with As­traZeneca now poised to get 5th place.

But Clar­i­vate has As­traZeneca beat­ing out the more ad­vanced ri­val, pre­sum­ably cred­it­ing their shot at a com­bo ap­proach with the in-house CT­LA-4 check­point treme­li­mum­ab. In­creas­ing­ly, though, an­a­lysts are won­der­ing if PD-L1 and CT­LA-4 are such a good match, con­sid­er­ing the tox pro­file.

So re­mem­ber, these are just es­ti­mates. And 2021 is a long, long way away.

As usu­al, the phar­ma gi­ants dom­i­nate the list, but biotech is clear­ly play­ing a big role in the lead-up to com­mer­cial­iza­tion. Tesaro — the new PARP play­er — makes the list along with Re­gen­eron’s stand­out an­ti­body team. And this year In­cyte gets in­to the block­buster lane, with Eli Lil­ly, on the im­pres­sive baric­i­tinib, which is look­ing at a loom­ing PDU­FA date. Kite just bare­ly falls short of block­buster sta­tus on this list with its pi­o­neer­ing and new­ly filed CAR-T, but some­thing tells me they’ll give this one an ex­tra push to see if they can break the mark ear­li­er.

Lists rarely repli­cate each oth­er. Eval­u­atePhar­ma put to­geth­er their list of top drugs in the pipeline, and came up with 15 prospec­tive block­busters. Ei­ther way you look at it, though, it’s go­ing to be a bet­ter year than 2016, when the FDA record­ed OKs on on­ly 22 new drugs.

Check out their re­port, which al­so looks at the way sales are pro­ject­ed to build over the next 5 years. We’ll be keep­ing score.


Im­age: Shut­ter­stock

Vlad Coric (Biohaven)

In an­oth­er dis­ap­point­ment for in­vestors, FDA slaps down Bio­haven’s re­vised ver­sion of an old ALS drug

Biohaven is at risk of making a habit of disappointing its investors. 

Late Friday the biotech $BHVN reported that the FDA had rejected its application for riluzole, an old drug that they had made over into a sublingual formulation that dissolves under the tongue. According to Biohaven, the FDA had a problem with the active ingredient used in a bioequivalence study back in 2017, which they got from the Canadian drugmaker Apotex.

Norbert Bischofberger. Kronos

Backed by some of the biggest names in biotech, Nor­bert Bischof­berg­er gets his megaround for plat­form tech out of MIT

A little over a year ago when I reported on Norbert Bischofberger’s jump from the CSO job at giant Gilead to a tiny upstart called Kronos, I noted that with his connections in biotech finance, that $18 million launch round he was starting off with could just as easily have been $100 million or more.

With his first anniversary now behind him, Bischofberger has that mega-round in the bank.

Endpoints News

Basic subscription required

Unlock this story instantly and join 55,100+ biopharma pros reading Endpoints daily — and it's free.

Chas­ing Roche's ag­ing block­buster fran­chise, Am­gen/Al­ler­gan roll out Avastin, Her­ceptin knock­offs at dis­count

Let the long battle for biosimilars in the cancer space begin.

Amgen has launched its Avastin and Herceptin copycats — licensed from the predecessors of Allergan — almost two years after the FDA had stamped its approval on Mvasi (bevacizumab-awwb) and three months after the Kanjinti OK (trastuzumab-anns). While the biotech had been fielding biosimilars in Europe, this marks their first foray in the US — and the first oncology biosimilars in the country.

Seer adds ex-FDA chief Mark Mc­Clel­lan to the board; Her­cules Cap­i­tal makes it of­fi­cial for new CEO Scott Bluestein

→ On the same day it announced a $17.5 million Series C, life sciences and health data company Seer unveiled that it had lured former FDA commissioner and ex-CMS administrator Mark McClellan on to its board. “Mark’s deep understanding of the health care ecosystem and visionary insights on policy reform will be crucial in informing our thinking as we work to bring our liquid biopsy and life sciences products to market,” said Seer chief and founder Omid Farokhzad in a statement.

Daniel O'Day

No­var­tis hands off 3 pre­clin­i­cal pro­grams to the an­tivi­ral R&D mas­ters at Gilead

Gilead CEO Daniel O’Day’s new task hunting up a CSO for the company isn’t stopping the industry’s dominant antiviral player from doing pipeline deals.

The big biotech today snapped up 3 preclinical antiviral programs from pharma giant Novartis, with drugs promising to treat human rhinovirus, influenza and herpes viruses. We don’t know what the upfront is, but the back end has $291 million in milestones baked in.

Vas Narasimhan, AP Images

On a hot streak, No­var­tis ex­ecs run the odds on their two most im­por­tant PhI­II read­outs. Which is 0.01% more like­ly to suc­ceed?

Novartis CEO Vas Narasimhan is living in the sweet spot right now.

The numbers are running a bit better than expected, the pipeline — which he assembled as development chief — is performing and the stock popped more than 4% on Thursday as the executive team ran through their assessment of Q2 performance.

Year-to-date the stock is up 28%, so the investors will be beaming. Anyone looking for chinks in their armor — and there are plenty giving it a shot — right now focus on payer acceptance of their $2.1 million gene therapy Zolgensma, where it’s early days. And CAR-T continues to underperform, but Novartis doesn’t appear to be suffering from it.

So what could go wrong?

Actually, not much. But Tim Anderson at Wolfe pressed Narasimhan and his development chief John Tsai to pick which of two looming Phase III readouts with blockbuster implication had the better odds of success.

Endpoints News

Basic subscription required

Unlock this story instantly and join 55,100+ biopharma pros reading Endpoints daily — and it's free.

Francesco De Rubertis

Medicxi is rolling out its biggest fund ever to back Eu­rope's top 'sci­en­tists with strange ideas'

Francesco De Rubertis built Medicxi to be the kind of biotech venture player he would have liked to have known back when he was a full time scientist.

“When I was a scientist 20 years ago I would have loved Medicxi,’ the co-founder tells me. It’s the kind of place run by and for investigators, what the Medicxi partner calls “scientists with strange ideas — a platform for the drug hunter and scientific entrepreneur. That’s what I wanted when I was a scientist.”

Endpoints News

Basic subscription required

Unlock this story instantly and join 55,100+ biopharma pros reading Endpoints daily — and it's free.

Af­ter a decade, Vi­iV CSO John Pot­tage says it's time to step down — and he's hand­ing the job to long­time col­league Kim Smith

ViiV Healthcare has always been something unique in the global drug industry.

Owned by GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer — with GSK in the lead as majority owner — it was created 10 years ago in a time of deep turmoil for the field as something independent of the pharma giants, but with access to lots of infrastructural support on demand. While R&D at the mother ship inside GSK was souring, a razor-focused ViiV provided a rare bright spot, challenging Gilead on a lucrative front in delivering new combinations that require fewer therapies with a more easily tolerated regimen.

They kept a massive number of people alive who would otherwise have been facing a death sentence. And they made money.

And throughout, John Pottage has been the chief scientific and chief medical officer.

Until now.

Endpoints News

Basic subscription required

Unlock this story instantly and join 55,100+ biopharma pros reading Endpoints daily — and it's free.

H1 analy­sis: The high-stakes ta­ble in the biotech deals casi­no is pay­ing out some record-set­ting win­nings

For years the big trend among dealmakers at the major players has been centered on ratcheting down upfront payments in favor of bigger milestones. Better known as biobucks for some. But with the top 15 companies competing for the kind of “transformative” pacts that can whip up some excitement on Wall Street, with some big biotechs like Regeneron now weighing in as well, cash is king at the high stakes table.

We asked Chris Dokomajilar, the head of DealForma, to crunch the numbers for us, looking over the top 20 deals for the past decade and breaking it all down into the top alliances already created in 2019. Gilead has clearly tipped the scales in terms of the coin of the bio-realm, with its record-setting $5 billion upfront to tie up to Galapagos’ entire pipeline.

Dokomajilar notes:

We’re going to need a ‘three comma club’ for the deals with over $1 billion in total upfront cash and equity. The $100 million-plus club is getting crowded at 164 deals in the last decade with new deals being added towards the top of the chart. 2019 already has 14 deals with at least $100 million in upfront cash and equity for a total year-to-date of over $9 billion. That beats last year’s $8 billion and sets a record.

Add upfronts and equity payments and you get $11.5 billion for the year, just shy of last year’s record-setting $11.8 billion.

Endpoints Premium

Premium subscription required

Unlock this article along with other benefits by subscribing to one of our paid plans.