Nine block­buster drugs to watch are mak­ing their de­but, aim­ing at a $16B prize in 2021

The bio­phar­ma in­dus­try is front-load­ing block­buster drug ap­provals this year.

Clar­i­vate An­a­lyt­ics list­ed the 9 block­busters their an­a­lysts ex­pect to see ap­proved by the FDA this year, and on­ly 4 of them have yet to get the green light in ear­ly Q2, in­clud­ing No­vo Nordisk’s semaglu­tide, their GLP-1 drug for di­a­betes, and As­traZeneca’s PD-L1 check­point dur­val­um­ab.

It’s a new world in the pay­er com­mu­ni­ty, and the con­sen­sus peak sales pro­jec­tions seem to be fur­ther off the mark than ever as the com­mer­cial kick­back grows steadi­ly worse. But it is al­ways in­ter­est­ing to see what an­a­lysts be­lieve the big new drugs of the year are go­ing to be worth 5 years down the road.

In this case, as out­lined in the Drugs to Watch re­port, the to­tal is $16 bil­lion in an­nu­al rev­enue.


Top of the mark: Ocre­vus, the new MS drug from Roche with an es­ti­mat­ed rev­enue stream of $3.3 bil­lion in 2021. Right be­hind comes Dupix­ent, the stel­lar eczema break­through from Re­gen­eron and Sanofi, which is ex­pect­ed to hit $2.8 bil­lion.

Mer­ck KGaA makes the list — prob­a­bly for the first le­git­i­mate block­buster thumbs up in more than a decade — for their check­point avelum­ab, part­nered with Pfiz­er and now ap­proved to be sold as Baven­cio. They have the num­ber 4 check­point on the mar­ket, with As­traZeneca now poised to get 5th place.

But Clar­i­vate has As­traZeneca beat­ing out the more ad­vanced ri­val, pre­sum­ably cred­it­ing their shot at a com­bo ap­proach with the in-house CT­LA-4 check­point treme­li­mum­ab. In­creas­ing­ly, though, an­a­lysts are won­der­ing if PD-L1 and CT­LA-4 are such a good match, con­sid­er­ing the tox pro­file.

So re­mem­ber, these are just es­ti­mates. And 2021 is a long, long way away.

As usu­al, the phar­ma gi­ants dom­i­nate the list, but biotech is clear­ly play­ing a big role in the lead-up to com­mer­cial­iza­tion. Tesaro — the new PARP play­er — makes the list along with Re­gen­eron’s stand­out an­ti­body team. And this year In­cyte gets in­to the block­buster lane, with Eli Lil­ly, on the im­pres­sive baric­i­tinib, which is look­ing at a loom­ing PDU­FA date. Kite just bare­ly falls short of block­buster sta­tus on this list with its pi­o­neer­ing and new­ly filed CAR-T, but some­thing tells me they’ll give this one an ex­tra push to see if they can break the mark ear­li­er.

Lists rarely repli­cate each oth­er. Eval­u­atePhar­ma put to­geth­er their list of top drugs in the pipeline, and came up with 15 prospec­tive block­busters. Ei­ther way you look at it, though, it’s go­ing to be a bet­ter year than 2016, when the FDA record­ed OKs on on­ly 22 new drugs.

Check out their re­port, which al­so looks at the way sales are pro­ject­ed to build over the next 5 years. We’ll be keep­ing score.


Im­age: Shut­ter­stock

Health­care Dis­par­i­ties and Sick­le Cell Dis­ease

In the complicated U.S. healthcare system, navigating a serious illness such as cancer or heart disease can be remarkably challenging for patients and caregivers. When that illness is classified as a rare disease, those challenges can become even more acute. And when that rare disease occurs in a population that experiences health disparities, such as people with sickle cell disease (SCD) who are primarily Black and Latino, challenges can become almost insurmountable.

The End­points 11: They've got mad mon­ey and huge am­bi­tions. It's time to go big or go home

These days, selecting a group of private biotechs for the Endpoints 11 spotlight begins with a sprint to get ahead of IPOs and the M&A teams at Big Pharma. I’ve had a couple of face plants earlier this year, watching some of the biotechs on my short list choose a quick leap onto Nasdaq or into the arms of a buyer.

Vividion, you would have been a great pick for the Endpoints 11. I’m sorry I missed you.

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Dave Lennon, former president of Novartis Gene Therapies

So what hap­pened with No­var­tis Gene Ther­a­pies? Here's your an­swer

Over the last couple of days it’s become clear that the gene therapy division at Novartis has quietly undergone a major reorganization. We learned on Monday that Dave Lennon, who had pursued a high-profile role as president of the unit with 1,500 people, had left the pharma giant to take over as CEO of a startup.

Like a lot of the majors, Novartis is an open highway for head hunters, or anyone looking to staff a startup. So that was news but not completely unexpected.

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Jacob Van Naarden (Eli Lilly)

Ex­clu­sives: Eli Lil­ly out to crash the megablock­buster PD-(L)1 par­ty with 'dis­rup­tive' pric­ing; re­veals can­cer biotech buy­out

It’s taken 7 years, but Eli Lilly is promising to finally start hammering the small and affluent PD-(L)1 club with a “disruptive” pricing strategy for their checkpoint therapy allied with China’s Innovent.

Lilly in-licensed global rights to sintilimab a year ago, building on the China alliance they have with Innovent. That cost the pharma giant $200 million in cash upfront, which they plan to capitalize on now with a long-awaited plan to bust up the high-price market in lung cancer and other cancers that have created a market worth tens of billions of dollars.

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Who are the women su­per­charg­ing bio­phar­ma R&D? Nom­i­nate them for this year's spe­cial re­port

The biotech industry has faced repeated calls to diversify its workforce — and in the last year, those calls got a lot louder. Though women account for just under half of all biotech employees around the world, they occupy very few places in C-suites, and even fewer make it to the helm.

Some companies are listening, according to a recent BIO survey which showed that this year’s companies were 2.5 times more likely to have a diversity and inclusion program compared to last year’s sample. But we still have a long way to go. Women represent just 31% of biotech executives, BIO reported. And those numbers are even more stark for women of color.

FDA+ roundup: Bs­U­FA III ready for show­time, court tells FDA to re-work com­pound­ing plan, new guid­ance up­dates and more

The FDA has now spelled out what exactly will be included in the third iteration of Biosimilar User Fee Act (BsUFA) from 2023 through 2027, which similarly to the prescription drug deal, sets fees that industry has to pay for submitting applications, in exchange for firm timelines that the agency must meet.

This latest deal includes several sweeteners for the biosimilar industry, which has yet to make great strides in the US market, with shorter review timelines for safety labeling updates and updates to add or remove an indication that does not contain efficacy data.

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Joshua Liang, Clover Biopharmaceuticals CEO

With world still in sore need of dos­es, Clover says its Covid-19 vac­cine is 67% ef­fec­tive in Phase III

With concerns about the Delta variant rising and much of the world still in desperate need of vaccine doses, a Chinese biotech announced Wednesday that a new shot has shown positive results in a large trial against Covid-19, including new variants.

Clover Biopharmaceuticals announced Wednesday that its vaccine candidate showed 79% efficacy against the Delta variant in a Phase II/III trial dubbed Spectra, and 67% effective against Covid-19 overall.

Jean Bennett (Brent N. Clarke/Invision/AP Images)

Lux­tur­na in­ven­tor Jean Ben­nett starts a new gene ther­a­py com­pa­ny to tack­le rare dis­eases left be­hind by phar­ma, VCs

A few years ago Jean Bennett found herself in a surprising place for a woman who invented the first gene therapy ever approved in the United States: No one, it seemed, wanted her work.

Bennett, who designed and co-developed Luxturna, approved in 2018 for a rare form of blindness, had kept building new gene therapies for eye diseases at her University of Pennsylvania lab. But although the results in animals looked promising, pharma companies and investors kept turning down the pedigreed ophthalmology professor.

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Maureen Hillenmeyer, Hexagon Bio CEO

Hexa­gon Bio rais­es $61M to con­tin­ue ef­forts to turn fun­gi in­to drugs

A year after raising a $47 million launch round, the fungi-loving drug hunters at Hexagon Bio have more than doubled their coffers.

Hexagon announced today that it raised another $61 million for its efforts to design cancer and infectious disease drugs based on insights mined from the DNA in millions of species of fungi. The new financing brings Hexagon’s committed funding to over $108 million.