Nine block­buster drugs to watch are mak­ing their de­but, aim­ing at a $16B prize in 2021

The bio­phar­ma in­dus­try is front-load­ing block­buster drug ap­provals this year.

Clar­i­vate An­a­lyt­ics list­ed the 9 block­busters their an­a­lysts ex­pect to see ap­proved by the FDA this year, and on­ly 4 of them have yet to get the green light in ear­ly Q2, in­clud­ing No­vo Nordisk’s semaglu­tide, their GLP-1 drug for di­a­betes, and As­traZeneca’s PD-L1 check­point dur­val­um­ab.

It’s a new world in the pay­er com­mu­ni­ty, and the con­sen­sus peak sales pro­jec­tions seem to be fur­ther off the mark than ever as the com­mer­cial kick­back grows steadi­ly worse. But it is al­ways in­ter­est­ing to see what an­a­lysts be­lieve the big new drugs of the year are go­ing to be worth 5 years down the road.

In this case, as out­lined in the Drugs to Watch re­port, the to­tal is $16 bil­lion in an­nu­al rev­enue.


Top of the mark: Ocre­vus, the new MS drug from Roche with an es­ti­mat­ed rev­enue stream of $3.3 bil­lion in 2021. Right be­hind comes Dupix­ent, the stel­lar eczema break­through from Re­gen­eron and Sanofi, which is ex­pect­ed to hit $2.8 bil­lion.

Mer­ck KGaA makes the list — prob­a­bly for the first le­git­i­mate block­buster thumbs up in more than a decade — for their check­point avelum­ab, part­nered with Pfiz­er and now ap­proved to be sold as Baven­cio. They have the num­ber 4 check­point on the mar­ket, with As­traZeneca now poised to get 5th place.

But Clar­i­vate has As­traZeneca beat­ing out the more ad­vanced ri­val, pre­sum­ably cred­it­ing their shot at a com­bo ap­proach with the in-house CT­LA-4 check­point treme­li­mum­ab. In­creas­ing­ly, though, an­a­lysts are won­der­ing if PD-L1 and CT­LA-4 are such a good match, con­sid­er­ing the tox pro­file.

So re­mem­ber, these are just es­ti­mates. And 2021 is a long, long way away.

As usu­al, the phar­ma gi­ants dom­i­nate the list, but biotech is clear­ly play­ing a big role in the lead-up to com­mer­cial­iza­tion. Tesaro — the new PARP play­er — makes the list along with Re­gen­eron’s stand­out an­ti­body team. And this year In­cyte gets in­to the block­buster lane, with Eli Lil­ly, on the im­pres­sive baric­i­tinib, which is look­ing at a loom­ing PDU­FA date. Kite just bare­ly falls short of block­buster sta­tus on this list with its pi­o­neer­ing and new­ly filed CAR-T, but some­thing tells me they’ll give this one an ex­tra push to see if they can break the mark ear­li­er.

Lists rarely repli­cate each oth­er. Eval­u­atePhar­ma put to­geth­er their list of top drugs in the pipeline, and came up with 15 prospec­tive block­busters. Ei­ther way you look at it, though, it’s go­ing to be a bet­ter year than 2016, when the FDA record­ed OKs on on­ly 22 new drugs.

Check out their re­port, which al­so looks at the way sales are pro­ject­ed to build over the next 5 years. We’ll be keep­ing score.


Im­age: Shut­ter­stock

Sanofi brings in 4 new ex­ec­u­tives in con­tin­ued shake-up, as vac­cines and con­sumer health chief head out the door

In the middle of Sanofi’s multi-pronged race to develop a Covid-19 vaccine, David Loew, the head of their sprawling vaccines unit, is leaving – part of the final flurry of moves in the French giant’ months-long corporate shuffle that will give them new-look leadership under new CEO Paul Hudson.

The company also said today that Alan Main, the head of their consumer healthcare unit, is out, and they named 4 executives to fill new or newly vacated positions, 3 of whom come from both outside both Sanofi and from Pharma.

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As­traZeneca trum­pets the 'mo­men­tous' da­ta they found for Tagris­so in an ad­ju­vant set­ting for NSCLC — but many of the ex­perts aren’t cheer­ing along

AstraZeneca is rolling out the big guns this evening to provide a salute to their ADAURA data on Tagrisso at ASCO.

Cancer R&D chief José Baselga calls the disease-free survival data for their drug in an adjuvant setting of early stage, epidermal growth factor receptor-mutated NSCLC patients following surgery “momentous.” Roy Herbst, the principal investigator out of Yale, calls it “transformative.”

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Pablo Legorreta, founder and CEO of Royalty Pharma AG, speaks at the annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California (Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Cap­i­tal­iz­ing Pablo: The world’s biggest drug roy­al­ty buy­er is go­ing pub­lic. And the low-key CEO di­vulges a few se­crets along the way

Pablo Legorreta is one of the most influential players in biopharma you likely never heard of.

Over the last 24 years, Legorreta’s Royalty Pharma group has become, by its own reckoning, the biggest buyer of drug royalties in the world. The CEO and founder has bought up a stake in a lengthy list of the world’s biggest drug franchises, spending $18 billion in the process — $2.2 billion last year alone. And he’s become one of the best-paid execs in the industry, reaping $28 million from the cash flow last year while reserving 20% of the cash flow, less expenses, for himself.

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Paul Hudson, Sanofi CEO (Getty Images)

Sanofi CEO Paul Hud­son has $23B burn­ing a hole in his pock­et. And here are some hints on how he plans to spend that

Sanofi has reaped $11.1 billion after selling off a big chunk of its Regeneron stock at $515 a share. And now everyone on the M&A side of the business is focused on how CEO Paul Hudson plans to spend it.

After getting stung in France for some awkward politicking — suggesting the US was in the front of the line for Sanofi’s vaccines given American financial support for their work, versus little help from European powers — Hudson now has the much more popular task of managing a major cash cache to pull off something in the order of a big bolt-on. Or two.

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Ab­b­Vie wins an ap­proval in uter­ine fi­broid-as­so­ci­at­ed heavy bleed­ing. Are ri­vals My­ovant and Ob­sE­va far be­hind?

Women expel on average about 2 to 3 tablespoons of blood during their time of the month. But with uterine fibroids, heavy bleeding is typical — a third of a cup or more. Drugmakers have been working on oral therapies to try and stem the flow, and as expected, AbbVie and their partners at Neurocrine Biosciences are the first to make it across the finish line.

Known chemically as elagolix, the drug is already approved as a treatment for endometriosis under the brand name Orilissa. It targets the GnRH receptor to decrease the production of estrogen and progesterone.

David Chang, Allogene CEO (Jeff Rumans)

Head­ed to PhII: Al­lo­gene CEO David Chang com­pletes a pos­i­tive ear­ly snap­shot of their off-the-shelf CAR-T pi­o­neer

Allogene CEO David Chang has completed the upbeat first portrait of the biotech’s off-the-shelf CAR-T contender ALLO-501 at virtual ASCO today, keeping all eyes on a drug that will now try to go on to replace the first-wave personalized pioneers he helped create.

The overall response rate outlined in Allogene’s abstract for treatment-resistant patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma slipped a little from the leadup, but if you narrow the patient profile to treatment-naïve patients — removing the 3 who had previous CAR-T therapy who didn’t respond, leaving 16 — the ORR lands at 75% with a 44% complete response rate. And 9 of the 12 responders remained in response at the data cutoff, offering a glimpse on durability that still has a long way to go before it can be completely nailed down.

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Roger Perlmutter, Merck R&D chief (YouTube)

Backed by BAR­DA, Mer­ck jumps in­to Covid-19: buy­ing out a vac­cine, part­ner­ing on an­oth­er and adding an­tivi­ral to the mix

Merck execs are making a triple play in a sudden leap into the R&D campaign against Covid-19. And they have more BARDA cash backing them up on the move.

Tuesday morning the pharma giant simultaneously announced plans to buy an Austrian biotech that has been working on a preclinical vaccine candidate, added a collaboration on another vaccine with the nonprofit IAVI and inked a deal with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics on an early-stage antiviral.

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Pfiz­er, Mer­ck KGaA ce­ment Baven­cio blad­der can­cer win with OS da­ta — while carv­ing an­oth­er niche in rare can­cer

Pfizer and Merck KGaA have detailed the Phase III data that inspired FDA regulators to designate Bavencio a “breakthrough” for first-line advanced bladder cancer and offered an early glance at how the PD-L1 can help patients with a rare gynecological cancer — carving out niches in the checkpoint space for itself after being shut out of numerous others.

In JAVELIN Bladder 100, Bavencio led to a 31% reduction in risk of death compared to standard care alone. It also extended median survival by more than seven months — a historic feat in this setting, according to investigators at Queen Mary University of London.

Dan O'Day, Gilead CEO (Andrew Harnik, AP Images)

UP­DAT­ED: Gilead leas­es part­ner rights to TIG­IT, PD-1 in a $2B deal with Ar­cus. Now comes the hard part

Gilead CEO Dan O’Day has brokered his way to a PD-1 and lined up a front row seat in the TIGIT arena, inking a deal worth close to $2 billion to align the big biotech closely with Terry Rosen’s Arcus. And $375 million of that comes upfront, with cash for the buy-in plus equity, along with $400 million for R&D and $1.22 billion in reserve to cover opt-in payments and milestones..

Hotly rumored for weeks, the 2 players have formalized a 10-year alliance that starts with rights to the PD-1, zimberelimab. O’Day also has first dibs on TIGIT and 2 other leading programs, agreeing to an opt-in fee ranging from $200 million to $275 million on each. There’s $500 million in potential TIGIT milestones on US regulatory events — likely capped by an approval — if Gilead partners on it and the stars align on the data. And there’s another $150 million opt-in payments for the rest of the Arcus pipeline.

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