Sahm Ad­ran­gi’s Ker­ris­dale knifes Pro­teosta­sis’ 'break­through' cys­tic fi­bro­sis da­ta in a bru­tal biotech short at­tack

Sahm Ad­ran­gi and his SWAT team at Ker­ris­dale Cap­i­tal have put an­oth­er biotech in their cross hairs.

The high-pro­file biotech in­vestor — who’s tak­en on a group of biotechs that range from Bavar­i­an Nordic to Prothena with a se­ries of bru­tal short at­tacks — is now ready to call Pro­teosta­sis’ $PTI work on cys­tic fi­bro­sis a bomb in the mak­ing.

“We looked at it,” Ad­ran­gi tells me, “and de­cid­ed to take a clos­er look af­ter it spiked” in the wake of the FDA’s break­through drug des­ig­na­tion.

Reg­u­la­tors put the Cam­bridge, MA-based com­pa­ny on its in­side reg­u­la­to­ry track, promis­ing to pro­vide an open-door ap­proach to help­ing speed it along, af­ter the biotech post­ed da­ta for its CFTR am­pli­fi­er PTI-428, part of a cock­tail it’s been de­vel­op­ing in hopes of cap­i­tal­iz­ing on the mar­ket that Ver­tex has been build­ing for it­self.

The biotech re­port­ed Phase II da­ta demon­strat­ing that their drug was linked with a 5.2% jump in a mea­sure of lung per­for­mance.

Shane Wil­son

In Ker­ris­dale’s view, though, that is non­sense. What re­al­ly hap­pened, Ker­ris­dale an­a­lyst Shane Wil­son claims, is that the tiny place­bo arm in­volv­ing just 4 pa­tients in the study had a sharp, sud­den and un­ex­pect­ed drop in lung per­for­mance dur­ing the 28-day tri­al that cre­at­ed a gap fa­vor­ing the drug. And when you com­pare it with what you would ex­pect for these pa­tients, there should not nor­mal­ly have been any­thing like that gulf be­tween the two small arms of the study.

“If place­bo was flat and the drug was up 1%,” says Wil­son, “no one would think that was good.”

From the re­port:

On av­er­age, we cal­cu­late that the PTI-428 group im­proved by just 2.5%, while the (4-per­son) place­bo group wors­ened by 6.7% – ex­act­ly repli­cat­ing Pro­teosta­sis’s stat­ed place­bo-ad­just­ed rel­a­tive im­prove­ment of 9.2%. In terms of ab­solute changes, we es­ti­mate that the PTI-428 group im­proved on av­er­age by just 1 per­cent­age point, while the place­bo group wors­ened by 4 per­cent­age points.

And that’s not some­thing that can be repli­cat­ed in a larg­er tri­al.

The rest of the da­ta points — like sweat chlo­ride — are ei­ther messy or be­ing ig­nored by Pro­teosta­sis, adds the Ker­ris­dale team.

“They don’t give the ac­tu­al re­sults, which means al­most cer­tain­ly that the re­sults aren’t good; prob­a­bly be­cause they didn’t do any­thing.”

From their re­port:

Giv­en the scarci­ty of CFTR mR­NA and pro­tein even in the air­way ep­ithe­li­um, we doubt that Pro­teosta­sis can re­li­ably mea­sure its fa­vored bio­mark­ers, call­ing in­to ques­tion its fun­da­men­tal un­der­stand­ing of its own drug. In­deed, we find it dif­fi­cult to trust the com­pa­ny’s da­ta, giv­en its ten­den­cy to gloss over po­ten­tial­ly neg­a­tive facts. For in­stance, while a group of par­tial­ly in­de­pen­dent re­searchers have re­cent­ly found that, in one in vit­ro mod­el, PTI-428 failed to in­crease CFTR pro­tein lev­els or func­tion­al­i­ty to a sta­tis­ti­cal­ly sig­nif­i­cant de­gree, ei­ther on its own or when added to stan­dard-of- care drugs, Pro­teosta­sis man­age­ment has ig­nored the un­pleas­ant re­sults, even though three Pro­teosta­sis em­ploy­ees were co-au­thors on the pa­per.

With­out a lead drug or a pipeline, Ker­ris­dale says the com­pa­ny can on­ly be worth cash, a 70% to 90% drop in val­ue.

There is lit­tle val­ue in PTI’s mis­lead­ing­ly spun da­ta, bizarrely noisy bio­mark­ers, and se­lec­tive­ly dis­closed re­sults. Alas, it’s far eas­i­er to in­flate weak da­ta than it is to in­flate ail­ing lungs.

The short at­tack ar­rives just hours af­ter Pro­teosta­sis laid out plans to take ad­van­tage of its swelled share price by sell­ing 9 mil­lion shares, with Leerink and RBC Cap­i­tal act­ing as joint book run­ners. Its shares were down 13% in pre-mar­ket trad­ing and then kept slid­ing af­ter the Ker­ris­dale re­port hit. By mid-morn­ing shares were down 20%.

Neil Wood­ford

While quite a few short at­tacks tend to arise from anony­mous re­ports or by way of a Tro­jan horse, Ker­ris­dale likes to do their work pub­licly and up close. They re­cent­ly earned some con­sid­er­able crit­i­cism from in­vestor Neil Wood­ford, who said:

Their job is to scare the mar­ket when the mar­ket is pre­pared to be scared. It doesn’t mat­ter if what they said about Al­lied Minds and Prothena is to­tal­ly in­ac­cu­rate and un­sub­stan­ti­at­ed. What mat­ters is Bloomberg and oth­ers giv­ing them the oxy­gen of pub­lic­i­ty and hey presto there is a self-ful­filled prophe­cy and the share price falls.

Prothena’s da­ta are com­ing up in the sec­ond quar­ter.


Sahm Ad­ran­gi. KER­RIS­DALE CAP­I­TAL

5AM Ven­tures: Fu­el­ing the Next Gen­er­a­tion of In­no­va­tors

By RBC Capital Markets
With Andy Schwab, Co-Founder and Managing Partner at 5AM Ventures

Key Points

Prescription Digital Therapeutics, cell therapy technologies, and in silico medicines will be a vital part of future treatment modalities.
Unlocking the potential of the microbiome could be the missing link to better disease diagnosis.
Growing links between academia, industry, and venture capital are spinning out more innovative biotech companies.
Biotech is now seen by investors as a growth space as well as a safe haven, fuelling the recent IPO boom.

Hal Barron, GSK via YouTube

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A little over a week ago, GSK R&D chief Hal Barron marked his third anniversary at the research helm by taking a turn at the virtual podium during JP Morgan to make the case that he and his team had built a valuable late-stage pipeline capable of churning out more than 10 blockbusters in the next 5 years.

And then, just days later, one of the cancer drugs he bet big on as a top prospect — bintrafusp, partnered with Merck KGaA — failed its first pivotal test in non-small cell lung cancer.

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Janet Woodcock (AP Images)

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And — according to an Endpoints poll — most industry readers would like her to stay there, although a significant minority is strongly opposed.

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An Endpoints Zoom meeting; and the email header employees will see if your company is a Premium subscriber

What’s next for End­points — and how to sup­port our in­de­pen­dent bio­phar­ma news mis­sion

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That’s why broader and deeper is the theme for 2021 at Endpoints. You can expect new coverage outside our core R&D focus, with deeper reporting in some key areas. When John Carroll and I launched Endpoints nearly five years ago, we were wading in waist-high waters. Now we’re a team of 25 full-time staffers (and growing) with plans to cover the flood of biopharma news, Endpoints-style.

Janet Woodcock and Joshua Sharfstein (AP, Images)

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It’s time for a new FDA commissioner to come on board, a rite of passage for Joe Biden’s administration that should help seal the new president’s rep on seeking out the experts to lead the government over the next 4 years.

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Michelle McMurry-Heath, BIO CEO (BIO via YouTube)

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The biopharma industry, on the whole, had a red-letter year in 2020 amid Covid-19, with fundraising at an all-time high and major players speeding vaccines ahead to approval. But for BIO, the industry’s leading trade organization, the pandemic has prompted a reconsideration of the game plan.

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Fast on Glax­o­SmithK­line's heels, Au­rinia wins OK to steer a sec­ond lu­pus nephri­tis drug straight to the mar­ket

GlaxoSmithKline’s Benlysta isn’t alone in the small circle of approved lupus nephritis drugs anymore.

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Charlie Fuchs, Roche and Genentech global head of product development for oncology and hematology (Yale Cancer Center)

Yale can­cer spe­cial­ist Char­lie Fuchs tapped as new glob­al de­vel­op­ment chief for Roche/Genen­tech

Roche and their big sub Genentech have just recruited a top cancer specialist at Yale to head up global product development in oncology and hematology.

I just got word that the pharma giant, which leads one of the most active cancer research operations in the world, recruited Charlie Fuchs, director of the Yale Cancer Center and physician-in-chief of Smilow Cancer Hospital. He’ll join the global operation March 1 and will be based in South San Francisco, where Genentech is based.

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Jonathan Weissman (MIT)

Can a new CRISPR tech­nique un­lock the se­crets of how can­cer spreads?

Jonathan Weissman’s team watched the cancer cells spread across the doomed mouse. Engineered with a bioluminescent enzyme, they appeared in scans first as a small navy blue diamond lodged near the heart; a week later, as a triangle splayed across the mouse’s upper body, with streaks of green and two distinct bright red hubs of activity. By day 54, the mouse resembled a lava lamp.

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