Six top biotech VCs take a look at the lat­est trends, and of­fer their thoughts on 2018

This year has been a rel­a­tive gush­er of VC dol­lars flow­ing in­to biotech com­pa­nies, with gi­ant “mega-deals” pro­pelling the in­dus­try’s record-set­ting year. Top VCs in the field say they’re cau­tious­ly op­ti­mistic that the trend will con­tin­ue next year.

The in­dus­try has cruised past its pre­vi­ous VC fund­ing record of $7.3 bil­lion, which was set back in 2015. This year saw biotechs raise $9.3 bil­lion in 471 deals, ac­cord­ing to Pitch­Book, mak­ing it the best year out of the last sev­en when it comes to vol­ume.

Deal count is run­ning a bit low­er than 2016 and 2015, which saw clos­er to 500 deals. But 2017 was a year of mega-deals, with the third quar­ter alone bring­ing in sev­er­al $100 mil­lion+ rounds. Most re­cent­ly there was ADC Ther­a­peu­tics’ $200 mil­lion round backed by As­traZeneca to push for­ward its next-gen an­ti­body-drug con­ju­gate. And ear­li­er in the quar­ter, Jeff Be­zos, Arch and oth­er in­vestors sunk $151 mil­lion in­to Uni­ty Biotech­nol­o­gy, which is look­ing to make new drugs that can se­lec­tive­ly sweep away senes­cent cells that clut­ter our bod­ies as we age.

All this ac­tiv­i­ty comes short­ly af­ter a some­what tur­bu­lent 2016 — a year when po­lit­i­cal and so­cial rhetoric and in­dus­try un­cer­tain­ty weighed on the sec­tor; when drug ap­provals fell sharply; and when biotech com­pa­nies faced a dwin­dling sup­ply of pub­lic mar­ket cap­i­tal to fund R&D.

Con­sid­er­ing the pip­ing hot IPO mar­ket so far this year and the record-set­ting VC fig­ures, it’s fair to say the in­dus­try took the un­cer­tain­ty rather well.

We asked 6 top ven­ture cap­i­tal­ists in biotech what they thought might hap­pen in 2018. Will ven­ture dol­lars go up, down, or stay flat next year? Why? Read their pre­dic­tions be­low:

Pre­dic­tions

Jer­el Davis

Jer­el Davis, man­ag­ing di­rec­tor at Ver­sant Ven­tures:

We ex­pect that 2018 will con­tin­ue to be a very strong ven­ture fund­ing en­vi­ron­ment with a con­tin­u­a­tion of fund­ing across stages, with large rounds, and in­creased com­mit­ments from new funds and cap­i­tal sources that are not the usu­al biotech sus­pects. This like­ly means ven­ture dol­lars will trend up­wards. Watch­ing pub­lic mar­ket ver­sus pri­vate val­u­a­tions through­out the year will be es­pe­cial­ly im­por­tant to en­sure the pri­vate space does not get ahead of it­self.

Wende Hut­ton

Wende Hut­ton, gen­er­al part­ner at Canaan Part­ners:

Ven­ture-backed fund­ing for bio­phar­ma deals in 2018 will be vig­or­ous and like­ly up from the high lev­els in 2017. An ir­re­sistible sup­ply of top-tier sci­ence and re­peat man­age­ment teams are bub­bling up every­where in the start­up ecosys­tem, which cre­ate at­trac­tive new op­por­tu­ni­ties for in­vest­ment. Ad­di­tion­al­ly, an un­par­al­leled lev­el of re­cent­ly-raised bio­phar­ma-fo­cused funds will need to be de­ployed in a ro­bust fash­ion dur­ing the next year. Canaan looks out and sees a great fund­ing en­vi­ron­ment for 2018.

Jay Lichter

Jay Lichter, man­ag­ing di­rec­tor at Aval­on Ven­tures:

I think that in­vest­ing will re­main ro­bust. There is a lot of cap­i­tal in the sys­tem with some big wins/ac­qui­si­tions and sev­er­al IPOs that pro­vid­ed liq­uid­i­ty for VCs and their in­vestors. I ex­pect the mar­kets to re­main “open” and hot while at times chop­py.

Ab­bie Cel­niker

Ab­bie Cel­niker, part­ner at Third Rock Ven­tures:

At Third Rock, we see the trend of healthy in­vest­ing con­tin­u­ing in 2018.  Con­di­tions in the macro en­vi­ron­ment place biotech in a strong po­si­tion for con­tin­ued val­ue cre­ation. In ad­di­tion, we see a tremen­dous amount of nov­el and ex­cit­ing sci­ence dri­ving both com­pa­ny cre­ation and the ad­vance­ment of new ther­a­pies mov­ing to­ward the clin­ic. Phar­ma and large biotech con­tin­ue to turn to small­er biotechs to en­hance their pipelines, and this sup­ports a very healthy ecosys­tem.

Bruce Booth

Bruce Booth, part­ner at At­las Ven­tures:

Bio­phar­ma ven­ture fund­ing in 2018 will like­ly mod­er­ate from the record-set­ting pace of 2017, but be in the ro­bust range of the last few years; in short, ac­cess to cap­i­tal won’t like­ly be a con­straint. Plen­ty of ven­ture and crossover firms have re­loaded with fresh funds, and large un­con­ven­tion­al gen­er­al­ist as­set man­agers re­main keen on in­vest­ing more in­to the promise of biotech, both pri­vate and pub­lic.

Noubar Afeyan

Noubar Afeyan, founder and CEO of Flag­ship Pi­o­neer­ing:

I ex­pect in­vest­ments in­to pri­vate biotech com­pa­nies to in­crease sig­nif­i­cant­ly year over year due to the strong pipeline of prod­uct-plat­form com­pa­nies emerg­ing from in­no­va­tion ef­forts in acad­e­mia, ven­ture firms and oth­er sources. Al­so ex­pect phar­ma de­pen­dence on ex­ter­nal in­no­va­tion as a source of their prod­uct sup­ply to con­tin­ue in­creas­ing as they find new ways of part­ner­ing with firms like Flag­ship to cre­ate long-term sup­ply agree­ments for break­through prod­ucts. Sources of cap­i­tal fo­cus­ing on life sci­ence in­vest­ing are al­so in­creas­ing con­sid­er­ably for late stage and pub­lic in­vest­ment.

 

De­vel­op­ment of the Next Gen­er­a­tion NKG2D CAR T-cell Man­u­fac­tur­ing Process

Celyad’s view on developing and delivering a CAR T-cell therapy with multi-tumor specificity combined with cell manufacturing success
Overview
Transitioning potential therapeutic assets from academia into the commercial environment is an exercise that is largely underappreciated by stakeholders, except for drug developers themselves. The promise of preclinical or early clinical results drives enthusiasm, but the pragmatic delivery of a therapy outside of small, local testing is most often a major challenge for drug developers especially, including among other things, the manufacturing challenges that surround the production of just-in-time and personalized autologous cell therapy products.

Paul Hudson, Getty Images

UP­DAT­ED: Sanofi CEO Hud­son lays out new R&D fo­cus — chop­ping di­a­betes, car­dio and slash­ing $2B-plus costs in sur­gi­cal dis­sec­tion

Earlier on Monday, new Sanofi CEO Paul Hudson baited the hook on his upcoming strategy presentation Tuesday with a tell-tale deal to buy Synthorx for $2.5 billion. That fits squarely with hints that he’s pointing the company to a bigger future in oncology, which also squares with a major industry tilt.

In a big reveal later in the day, though, Hudson offered a slate of stunners on his plans to surgically dissect and reassemble the portfoloio, saying that the company is dropping cardio and diabetes research — which covers two of its biggest franchise arenas. Sanofi missed the boat on developing new diabetes drugs, and now it’s pulling out entirely. As part of the pullback, it’s dropping efpeglenatide, their once-weekly GLP-1 injection for diabetes.

“To be out of cardiovascular and diabetes is not easy for a company like ours with an incredibly proud history,” Hudson said on a call with reporters, according to the Wall Street Journal. “As tough a choice as that is, we’re making that choice.”

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What does $6.9B buy these days in on­col­o­gy R&D? As­traZeneca has a land­mark an­swer

Given the way the FDA has been whisking through new drug approvals months ahead of their PDUFA date, AstraZeneca and their partners Daiichi Sankyo may not have to wait until Q2 of next year to get a green light on trastuzumab deruxtecan (DS-8201).

The pharma giant this morning played their ace in the hole, showing off why they were willing to commit to a $6.9 billion deal — with $1.35 billion in a cash upfront — to partner on the drug.

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Large advertisements for the drug Vivitrol decorate the walls of Grand Central Station on June 15, 2017 in New York City. (Photo: Andrew Lichtenstein via Getty)

FDA slaps down Alk­er­mes for mis­lead­ing Viv­it­rol ads — don't for­get vul­ner­a­bil­i­ty to opi­oid over­dose

The ads piqued interest as soon as they started appearing in 2016: at Grand Central Station, on the Red Line in Cambridge, and on a billboard off the New Jersey Turnpike. All showed a young person, generally with his or her arms crossed, and the question, “what is Vivitrol?”

Vivitrol’s maker, Alkermes, was in the midst of a marketing and lobbying campaign to promote the anti-opioid addiction drug — a campaign that would face significant backlash for tarnishing competitors despite little evidence for Vivitrol’s superiority.

Paul Hudson, Sanofi

Paul Hud­son promis­es a bright new fu­ture at Sanofi, kick­ing loose me-too drugs and fo­cus­ing on land­mark ad­vances. But can he de­liv­er?

Paul Hudson was on a mission Tuesday morning as he stood up to address Sanofi’s new R&D and business strategy.

Still fresh into the job, the new CEO set out to convince his audience — including the legions of nervous staffers inevitably devoting much of their day to listening in — that the pharma giant is shedding the layers of bureaucracy that had held them back from making progress in the past, dropping the duds in the pipeline and reprioritizing a more narrow set of experimental drugs that were promised as first-in-class or best-in-class.  The company, he added, is now positioned to “go after other opportunities” that could offer a transformational approach to treating its core diseases.

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FDA in-house re­view spot­lights an is­sue with one of Hori­zon's end­points but notes ef­fi­ca­cy for lead drug

The FDA in-house review highlights a disagreement of investigators’ use of a key endpoint by Horizon Pharma in the late-stage trial for the top drug in its pipeline, but largely agreed that the antibody was effective.

Horizon submitted a BLA for thyroid eye disease (TED) drug teprotumumab in March, less than two years after they bought the drug (and the rest of a division) from Narrow River for $145 million upfront. With breakthrough status, priority review, orphan designation and in-house sales projections of up to $750 million, the one-time Roche reject became the marquee pipeline asset for a company that’s developed some of the world’s most expensive drugs.

Seat­tle Ge­net­ics de­tails pos­i­tive OS and PFS da­ta for tu­ca­tinib in breast can­cer

Seattle Genetics $SGEN is showing off more positive data around tucatinib, its pivotal-stage drug for HER2 positive breast cancer.

A month after hearing about solidly upbeat hazard ratios, we learned today that the estimated progression-free survival rate at one year was 33% in the tucatinib arm compared to 12% for patients taking trastuzumab and capecitabine alone.

Median PFS was 7.8 months (95% CI: 7.5, 9.6) in the tucatinib arm, compared to 5.6 months (95% CI: 4.2, 7.1) in the control arm.

Bat­tered, cash hun­gry In­tec feels the burn of No­var­tis re­jec­tion

It’s a case of some bad timing for Intec.

Just when a key trial testing the company’s Accordion drug delivery tech imploded in Parkinson’s disease, they handed Novartis data from a successful PK study of a custom Accordion pill engineered to deliver a Novartis compound to entice the Swiss drugmaker into signing a licensing agreement.

Novartis said thanks, but no thanks.

For the cash-strapped Israeli drug developer, the failure to clinch the deal marks a big blow. As of the third quarter, the company has $15.7 million in cash and equivalents, which HC Wainwright analysts estimate will keep the lights on into mid-2020.

Bris­tol-My­ers shows off a low-pro­file AML con­tender it gained from Cel­gene buy­out — and they’re tak­ing it straight to the FDA

Bristol-Myers Squibb reaped an enormous pipeline with its much-criticized $64 billion megadeal to buy Celgene. And it got a few hidden gems in the deal.

One of those gems was brought out for display on Tuesday, with a late-breaker at ASH on CC-486, which is now being prepped for regulatory filings at the FDA and elsewhere.

Celgene top-lined the positive results in a maintenance setting for acute myeloid leukemia a few months ago, but at ASH investigators pulled back the curtains on the all-important data they believe will give them an advantage in the commercial wars to come.

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