Top an­a­lyst sizes up wind­fall bil­lions for Pfiz­er, Re­gen­eron and Eli Lil­ly in a big week for the Covid-19 R&D race

Pfiz­er CEO Al­bert Bourla’s $5.6 mil­lion per­son­al wind­fall from stock sales on the same day the phar­ma gi­ant ex­hil­a­rat­ed much of the world with 90%-plus pro­tec­tion rates for its Covid-19 vac­cine un­der­scores that there’s a sig­nif­i­cant amount of mon­ey rid­ing on who gets to home base with the first ap­provals for pan­dem­ic reme­dies.

SVB Leerink’s Ge­of­frey Porges has been run­ning the num­bers in this field, and he took some time to as­sess Eli Lil­ly’s win this week over Re­gen­eron in the an­ti­body race. He didn’t ex­pect Lil­ly to come out ahead, if at all, so he’s ratch­et­ing down the sales es­ti­mates he ex­pects for Re­gen­eron by a bit, with $1.3 bil­lion in rev­enue pro­ject­ed next year, fol­lowed by steadi­ly dwin­dling rev­enue — $646 mil­lion in 2023 and $352 mil­lion in 2025.

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